FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

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Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The Bank of Canada has essentially made the case to remove the 50bp of policy accommodation it handed out in 2015 to deal with the oil price shock.  Rates in Canada have jumped in the last month to price in about three-quarters of this normalization, but there may be some room for the CAD to firm further.  The question we should be pondering is what about the RBA next week? Will it join the central bankers in recent weeks that have fluffed up their hawkish feathers? Even subtle changes in tone have had big impacts recently. Witness the stronger EUR and NZD. The RBA was actually making noises about subjugating their inflation target to financial stability concerns over household debt and house prices since around October last year.  And macroprudential steps appear to have cooled the housing market this year. As such, it is less likely to see a need for rate rises soon.  Nevertheless, it will probably upgrade its assessment of the labour market. The market still has little chance of hikes priced in for the RBA in the year ahead, seeming to dismiss what in fact has been a relatively optimistic tone in RBA statements towards global growth and investment.  Given the current sensitivity in the market to shifts in central bank tones, we see upside risk for the AUD next week.  The AUD is already trading near an important resistance level; a break above will trigger technical support.  We are not convinced that the AUD is set for a renaissance, as its highly indebted households appear quite sensitive to even small rate rises.  But the same might have been said for Canada.

The Bank of Canada has essentially made the case to remove the 50bp of policy accommodation it handed out in 2015 to deal with the oil price shock.  Rates in Canada have jumped in the last month to price in about three-quarters of this normalization, but there may be some room for the CAD to firm further.  The question we should be pondering is what about the RBA next week? Will it join the central bankers in recent weeks that have fluffed up their hawkish feathers? Even subtle changes in tone have had big impacts recently. Witness the stronger EUR and NZD. The RBA was actually making noises about subjugating their inflation target to financial stability concerns over household debt and house prices since around October last year.  And macroprudential steps appear to have cooled the housing market this year. As such, it is less likely to see a need for rate rises soon.  Nevertheless, it will probably upgrade its assessment of the labour market. The market still has little chance of hikes priced in for the RBA in the year ahead, seeming to dismiss what in fact has been a relatively optimistic tone in RBA statements towards global growth and investment.  Given the current sensitivity in the market to shifts in central bank tones, we see upside risk for the AUD next week.  The AUD is already trading near an important resistance level; a break above will trigger technical support.  We are not convinced that the AUD is set for a renaissance, as its highly indebted households appear quite sensitive to even small rate rises.  But the same might have been said for Canada.

Bank of Canada Set to Hike, but What About the RBA?