FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

RBA Holding Still Waiting for Big Waves to Hit

Australian Govt Infrastructure Boom Is Leading Private Capex Recovery

Construction, Commodities and Politics Build Case for AUD/NZD

Australian Economy No Longer in Transition

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The RBA has gone out of its way to damp down expectations that it will hike rates for some time; pointing to slack in the labour market, a higher exchange rate, retail competition intensifying as Amazon enters the Australia market, a subdued outlook for business investment, risk in the housing market and from household debt, and a weaker outlook for China and Australia’s terms of trade.  Meanwhile, The Australian economy is punching out some of the strongest broad-based activity numbers in some time.  Forward indicators of business investment and employment have accelerated, and inflation is set for a bump in the second half of this year on a surge in electricity prices and a jump in the minimum award wage. And the terms of trade are rising on renewed strength in Chinese commodity demand and a synchronized global economic recovery.  The Australian external balance has virtually disappeared; at a low in over 30 years.  As we have noted in recent reports, while the Australian economy is gaining momentum, New Zealand economic growth has slowed. On a number of counts (external balance, political risk, housing markets, construction trends, commodity price trends) the AUD comes out ahead of the NZD. The RBNZ quarterly policy statement on Thursday is likely to try and emulate the RBA effort to damp down interest rate hike expectations and the exchange rate.  The AUD/NZD long run average is between 1.15 and 1.20, much higher than the current 1.075.  There are few reasons to argue why it should not already be back up there, if not higher.</em></p>

The RBA has gone out of its way to damp down expectations that it will hike rates for some time; pointing to slack in the labour market, a higher exchange rate, retail competition intensifying as Amazon enters the Australia market, a subdued outlook for business investment, risk in the housing market and from household debt, and a weaker outlook for China and Australia’s terms of trade.  Meanwhile, The Australian economy is punching out some of the strongest broad-based activity numbers in some time.  Forward indicators of business investment and employment have accelerated, and inflation is set for a bump in the second half of this year on a surge in electricity prices and a jump in the minimum award wage. And the terms of trade are rising on renewed strength in Chinese commodity demand and a synchronized global economic recovery.  The Australian external balance has virtually disappeared; at a low in over 30 years.  As we have noted in recent reports, while the Australian economy is gaining momentum, New Zealand economic growth has slowed. On a number of counts (external balance, political risk, housing markets, construction trends, commodity price trends) the AUD comes out ahead of the NZD. The RBNZ quarterly policy statement on Thursday is likely to try and emulate the RBA effort to damp down interest rate hike expectations and the exchange rate.  The AUD/NZD long run average is between 1.15 and 1.20, much higher than the current 1.075.  There are few reasons to argue why it should not already be back up there, if not higher.

AUD

Counting the Ways AUD Is Set to Rise