FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

Australian Economy No Longer in Transition

Construction, Commodities and Politics Build Case for AUD/NZD

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The USD has taken a decent beating this year.  On broad indices, it was at a high in around 15-years in January, and in the space of six months, accelerating in the last three, it is down around 8% to be testing the low side of its range for the last two-and a half years. The market may be getting into a short/bearish position for the USD, but it is not excessive, and if the US macro-outlook can’t pull its socks up, it is quite possible to see a deeper correction for the USD in the order of 5 to 10%.  The fall in the USD reflects the unwinding of initial optimism related to the Trump and Republican election victory.  And the higher risk of political uncertainty or gridlock in the USA.  It also reflects a mediocre US economic performance, while global growth appears more synchronized and stronger than it has been for some years.  The US has improved its 2yr yield advantage against most countries over the last year, but US 2yr swap rates peaked in March, and the Fed may now keep rates on hold for a prolonged period while it assesses market reaction to a balance sheet run-down.  Stronger growth momentum abroad may keep the USD in a downtrend as unhedged equity flows boost other currencies.  This helps account for the resurgent EUR this year.  There is scope for Trump and the Republican Party to restore optimism by moving forward the stalled legislative agenda, but uncertainty is elevated heading into the debt ceiling, spending bill and budget negotiations over the next few months.  The CAD, AUD, and NZD have been at the forefront of the rebound in global currencies against the weaker USD.  We look at the external balance for these three currencies, the Australian current account position is at its strongest position in 35-years, suggesting upside risk for the AUD in a stable global environment. </em></p>

The USD has taken a decent beating this year.  On broad indices, it was at a high in around 15-years in January, and in the space of six months, accelerating in the last three, it is down around 8% to be testing the low side of its range for the last two-and a half years. The market may be getting into a short/bearish position for the USD, but it is not excessive, and if the US macro-outlook can’t pull its socks up, it is quite possible to see a deeper correction for the USD in the order of 5 to 10%.  The fall in the USD reflects the unwinding of initial optimism related to the Trump and Republican election victory.  And the higher risk of political uncertainty or gridlock in the USA.  It also reflects a mediocre US economic performance, while global growth appears more synchronized and stronger than it has been for some years.  The US has improved its 2yr yield advantage against most countries over the last year, but US 2yr swap rates peaked in March, and the Fed may now keep rates on hold for a prolonged period while it assesses market reaction to a balance sheet run-down.  Stronger growth momentum abroad may keep the USD in a downtrend as unhedged equity flows boost other currencies.  This helps account for the resurgent EUR this year.  There is scope for Trump and the Republican Party to restore optimism by moving forward the stalled legislative agenda, but uncertainty is elevated heading into the debt ceiling, spending bill and budget negotiations over the next few months.  The CAD, AUD, and NZD have been at the forefront of the rebound in global currencies against the weaker USD.  We look at the external balance for these three currencies, the Australian current account position is at its strongest position in 35-years, suggesting upside risk for the AUD in a stable global environment. 

AUD

External Balance Supports AUD