Last Week in Event SPACE: Sembcorp, Milton, Toshiba, Dah Sing Bank, WH Group, 51job, Port Congestion
Last Week in Event SPACE ...
- Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) is struggling. It needs cash. It will dilute existing holders via a rights offering which will lead NTA to S$0.154 and TERP at S$0.1244. The offering is fully backstopped - two-thirds by Temasek and one-third by DBS - but expect this to trade to TERP and lower. Borrow will be an issue.
- Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) is a complicated trade but a Marvelous Arb.
- Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s AGM caused excitement. Chairperson Nagayama's reappointment was rejected, plus Audit Committee member Kobayashi was booted from the board. Because it's likely METI would rather not have rogue foreign shareholders trying to run the company, there may be a revised effort to get PE Funds to find a solution.
- I'd still be long both Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK) here. I find it wholly unlikely there was no substance to that move last Friday.
- Buy WH Group (288 HK) on sharp drops in price. This partial tender arb is still good, but like many good partial tenders, this is a range trade.
- Given recent Cayman petitions, I would not be surprised to see this pushback on pricing continue, which may avail smaller investors in 51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) the opportunity to jump on the coattails of a bigger cause.
The good news is that Yantian International Container Terminals is back to normal operations as of the 24 June. That appears to be all the good news.
- Plus, other events, CCASS movements, and Mood Spins.
(This insight covers specific insights & comments involving Stubs, Pairs, Arbitrage, share Classifications, and Events - or SPACE - in the past week)
M&A - ASIA
Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) (Mkt Cap: $1.8bn; Liquidity: $18mn)
Last year Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP) and SMM announced a gloriously messy recapitalization plan for SMM, and a de-merger between the two, discussed in SembCorp Marine and SCI - A Gloriously Messy Recap and De-Merger - Big Win for SCI and Sembcorp Marine Rights Offer - Cast Away. SMM conducted a large rights offering to raise money to repay a subordinated loan then-parent SCI had provided. Temasek backstopped the rights offering. Then SCI spun off SMM to its shareholders. This was, in effect, a transfer of indirect ownership of SMM by Temasek to direct ownership to Temasek. SMM had been cast away.
- A year later, SMM has now announced a 3:2 Rights Offering at S$0.08/share which is a 37% discount to TERP. It is priced very low. The reason for the Rights Offering to raise S$1.5bn is because conditions in 2021 are worse than expected on the cost and revenue side, and significant cashflow expected for 2021/2022 will be delayed a year or more.
- There is also an MOU on a possible combination with KEP. KEP doesn't need this, but wouldn't mind getting rid of (or at least de-consolidating) the O&M business. If it could do that it would be like SCI getting rid of SMM. It would be able to fly on its own merits with a consolidated EV/EBITDA multiple which was higher (though the real estate development business will drag that multiple lower than KEP would like). The merger with KEP would be done to make SMM even bigger. It would not necessarily make it better other than to diversify towards a clean energy order book. It will not improve SMM profitability near-term.
- If you are long SMM, Travis Lundy said he'd bail (sell). There is not much borrow available on SMM so most arbs can basically ignore the rights trade. The Rights will trade liquidly - and probably expensively - on Day 1. Travis expects the SMM shares (and Rights) will fall during the Rights Trading Period. He does not currently expect the shares to trade down to the Rights Price like they did last time. If they did, it would be worth buying the shares in the market at S$0.08 because that would likely be the price which would be the MGO Price that Temasek would have to pay IF they increased their stake by more than 1%.
Links to:
Travis' insight: Sembcorp Marine Bites the Bullet - Big Rights Offering - And May Combine with Keppel O&M
Brian Freitas 's insight: Sembcorp Marine: BIG Rights Issue & Potential Combination with Keppel O&M
Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) (Mkt Cap: $3.1bn; Liquidity: $2mn)
Investment houses Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) (WHSP) and Milton have announced a merger by way of a Scheme via a scrip consideration. The proposal presentation implies Milton shareholders will receive a total consideration of $6.00/share, a 20% premium to last close and a 9.9% premium to the pre-tax NTA, comprising new WHSP shares; a fully franked special dividend from Milton of up A$0.37/share; and a fully franked final dividend from Milton of A$.08/share (estimated). Based on the current prices, following the completion, WHSP shareholders will own 66.2% of the combined entity and Milton shareholders 33.8%. 97% of Milton's asserts are listed equities. Why doesn't WHSP just buy the listed portfolio? Milton doesn't own any large position in any particular asset, as per the May NTA. Why pay a 10% premium to the NTA of Milton? Is there some other intangible asset (additional franking credits, tax loss carry forwards, anything?) inside the MLT entity worth paying for?
- This looks done. The indicative Offer price is a lifetime high. There is some weird optionality embedded here and investors have to be aware of how to deal with break risk if the market falls. Plus terms fluctuate with the market. If the NTA, for example, falls 5% and WHSP remains unchanged, you will lose on the set-up. I was inclined to avoid at a gross spread of 3%, where it was at the time of my insight.
- Travis, on the other hand, came out quite bullish. He reckons the right trade is buying $100 of MLT shares and shorting roughly $95 of MLT NTA baskets as a primary hedge. That isolates the MLT vs MLT NTA trade at the current premium. He saw the embedded call option as being worth 4.5% which would be A$=5.5*1.045 or just about A$0.25/ MLT share. He also sees the put options to buy to hedge termination at being worth about A$0.12/share. Because these put options can offset the delta of the call option, that cheapens the cost of protection substantially.
- The simplest way to trade this is to buy MLT, short sell MLT NTA, sell the 3mo WHSP call option struck at 31 or just above or delta hedge the virtual call with some short WHSP, then buy end-Aug to mid-Sep index put spreads at 75-85 in 2x the size (assuming one cannot buy MLT put spreads). The call and the 1mo VWAP sale of WHSP and the termination trigger puts have to be dynamically managed.
Links to:
my insight: WHSP's Proposed Merger With Milton Corp
Travis' insights: Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb and Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb
Brian's insight: Milton - WHSP Merger : Index Impact on WHSP
Travis recommends thinking about WH Group (288 HK)'s partial as an 80% participation rate situation for the moment. That means a relatively low pro-ration. If the shares go higher, participation will obviously drop, but this event is really the major owners of WH buying out a large chunk of minority holdings cheaply because the shares have sharply underperformed peers in the last 18 months since ASF became a major factor.
Link to Travis' insight: WH Group Vs Peers - Too Many Piggies Going to Market?
Fuji Kosan Company (5009 JP) (Mkt Cap: $0.1bn; Liquidity: $1mn)
When Fuji Kosan's Special Committee came out against Aslead's deal, they announced that they intended to conduct a rights issue that would dilute Aslead down to a lower stake post-Tender Offer. That would set a Record Date for shareholders on 11 June (i.e. before Aslead could buy more) but the dilution would happen in August. Aslead took them to court, asking for an injunction. The Court sided with Aslead and this was announced the day before the AGM (i.e. announced on 23 June). When that happened, this was a goner.
- The Tender Offer is done for. That means under the terms of the Warrants Approval that if the holder ends up not owning more than 1.853mm shares because the Tender Offer has been cancelled, the Special Independent Committee can decide that to cancel the Warrants Issue (which was approved yesterday). But it doesn't have to.
- If the Special Committee cancels the warrants, then Aslead can continue to hold their shares. If the Special Committee does not cancel the warrant issue, Aslead has a year to get below 10% so as to be able to exercise their warrants which expire in Sep 2022.
- If Aslead wants, they could still buy some shares below the current price. That might support the stock somewhat, but they cannot buy a a lot. Travis does not see who else would be interested. The stock is cheap, but it would likely require a VERY large foreign holder to join up and independently agree that management is doing the wrong thing. Then they could try to spill the board. Looking at the AGAINST vote for the warrant (Agenda Item 4) will be key when the details come out.
(link to Travis' insight: Fuji Kosan Wins In Court, Aslead Walks Away)
On Tuesday 22 June after the close, the CEO of Oliver Corp (7959 JP)- a Japanese interior design and furniture company - and Integral KK, a small private equity firm in Japan with a couple dozen small deals under its belt, announced an MBO for the company. The Company is significantly cash-rich. The market cap at takeout price is ¥38.6bn but net cash and securities are close to ¥25bn. The forecast for forward EBITDA appears to take a sharp hit from this year onward despite ongoing record sales expectations. Hmmm... The ¥3,781/share offered is probably a bit light. I estimate this deal should be done at ¥4600-5000/share. But it will be tough to block. Link to Travis' insight: Oliver (7959 JP) MBO - Please Sir, I Want Some More!
Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) was up as much as 7.2% at one point on the 23 June after a strong intraday rise in the lunch session. The driver was commentary from parent Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) at its AGM where it suggested that it would decide this year whether to sell its stake in HCM or make it a fully consolidated subsidiary. Link to Mio Kato's insight: Hitachi Construction – TOB Head-Fake)
Sanshin Electronics (8150 JP) announced it would buy back up to 7 million shares in a Tender Offer at ¥2,249/share, which is higher than all any price in history save three closing prices in April 2018. It is more impressive than it sounds. The 7,000,000 shares is 28.8% of shares out, and is designed to lift the company's Return on Equity above 5%. But importantly, the 6.7 million shares which are specifically targeted here for purchase are 34.9% of the shares out less treasury shares. But, like most buyback tender offers in Japan, this one is not meant for you. Link to Travis' insight: Sanshin Electronics (8150 JP) BIG Buyback Tender - Not Designed For You.
EVENTS
Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) (Mkt Cap: $19.8bn; Liquidity: $156mn)
Shareholders rejecting Nagayama's reappointment is good news. It means that despite a drop in active foreign shareholder power from 50+% to ~38% (and overall foreign ownership from 62+% to 50.5%) from May 2020 to March 2021 that upset shareholders have the power to change the board, making them responsible. Travis thinks even domestic shareholders should be encouraged by the confirmation of shareholder power. This will upset METI but taking Nagayama-san out of the picture means a greater not lesser chance of a PE Fund takeout.
- Replacing Nagayama could result in faster gains but is a higher risk in Mio's view as it is unclear whether METI would stand idly by if restructuring demand were extremely aggressive. A more open confrontation between shareholders and METI would probably be the worst outcome in terms of creating confusion over FEFTA.
- This new board is effectively a caretaker board until the large-ish nomination committee can find new directors to nominate to help them find a new chairperson of the Board and a new CEO, and a couple of new executives to replace those who were fired. Finding new people will be a problem. Travis expects we will see an EGM to add directors where the search effort will be conducted in consultation with major shareholders.
- Travis thinks this outcome is GREAT for shareholders. Despite the effort by METI to intervene, the truth came out. Despite the fact that foreigners sold between the EGM and the AGM record date, shareholder outrage was clearly manifested, and gained results. METI cannot block this kind of shareholder vote. This must make them mad. Because METI would rather not have rogue foreign shareholders trying to run the company, he expects that there may be a revised effort to get PE Funds to find a solution.
- Separately, Toshiba disclosed the reports by its Audit Committee and the “third party” law firm, Nishimura & Asahi. The contrast between the quality of work of the independent investigators selected by Effissimo and that of Nishimura & Asahi is stark.
Links to:
Travis' insights: How Much of Toshiba Is Owned By "Activists"? The Answer & Toshiba Board in Disarray! Likely Need ANOTHER EGM
Mio's insight: Toshiba – A Tale of Two Investigative Reports
Squeeze Box: The Port Congestion Contagion
In Squeeze Box: The Port Congestion Contagion, I canvassed the backlog of TEUs at the Yantian port after stringent COVID-19 prevention and restriction measures; the backdrop to the worldwide port congestions even ahead of the Suez and Yantian disruptions; skyrocketing indices and spot prices; blanks sailings, alliances, and a whole lot more.
- The container shipping business operates at very low margins, fast turnaround speeds, or "just in time" logistics. What we are seeing now is the demand for products to ship is ahead of ships/containers being supplied. Margins for carriers are surging, but the system as a whole is falling over.
- If new events transpire, such as a fresh Covid outbreak leading to more supply chain disruptions, who knows where this short to medium impact on the ports and spot prices will lead.
- For now, we have a cargo boom, a shortage of capacity, falling inventories, as we head into the peak season, There appears minimal leeway for a return to "normal operations" anytime soon.
- The situation is currently left to market dynamics. Rates will increase to such a point that shippers are simply priced out of the market. Expect lower margin goods to face the early chop. We could be heading into a lean Xmas.
China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK) has announced that it will adjust the Dividend Policy to a 60% payout ratio, lifting it later to 70%. There is no chance that will not happen for China Mobile (941 HK). They will still have too much cash. They should have a 100% payout ratio but even then, they really need to buy back shares. They should do a Tender Offer Buyback of the HK H-shares. Link to Travis' original bullish insight on China Mobile and China Telecom related to A-share issuance China Mobile (941 HK) - It Could Have Been Done Better, But It Ain't Bad for Hs and the new one: China Telecom (728 HK) Ups Div Payout Policy - There's a Plan Here. Expect China Mobile to Follow.
In China Evergrande Group: Buyback Scope Limited; Passive Selling Awaits, Brian talks about Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) restarting its buyback, but there is limited scope for the company to squeeze the stock higher since it will very soon reach the free float limit of 22.04%.
Activist and value investor David Webb has the uncanny ability to move stocks. In David Webb's Greatest Hits, I analysed 22 stocks in which he held 5% or more to ascertain how long the WHOO (Webb-halo of outperformance) persists.
STUBS
I estimate DSF's discount to NAV at ~43% versus a 12-month average of 49%. Last Friday (the 18th June), the intra-day highs for DSF and DSB were 36.2% and 37.8% above their respective close the day before. On Monday, they were down 19.4% and 21.8% from those highs. The stocks are still up 14% and 9%, respectively, from last Thursday's close. On the 17 June, DSF/DSB announced a new CFO for both companies. I can't imagine his appointment accounts for the huge move. Not a peep from either company on these unusual moves.
- The rule on unusual price moves? This is captured under Rule 13.10 of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and Part XIVA of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). Under the Ordinance, section 307D highlights some exceptions to the disclosure requirement, which includes "the information concerns an incomplete proposal or negotiation". Mmm.
- As discussed in Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK): Yue Xiu's Offer Is Light, Yue Xiu's Offer for Chong Hing Bank (1111 HK) shares not owned, shines a spotlight on Hong Kong's remaining "family"-owned banks, such as DSB and Bank of East Asia (23 HK).
- DSB is the most obvious takeover candidate. It is 74.4% held by DSF, which in turn is controlled by the Wong family with 42.96%. And at 0.43x P/B it is still cheap. Chong Hing is being taken out 0.9x P/B. A clean Offer for DSB is eminently doable. The alternative is the family makes an offer for DSF which is predicated on the price of DSB, which then results in a derisory downstream offer for DSB. Perhaps, but I think the former is more likely.
(link to my insight: StubWorld: Holdcos At 3 STD+)
M&A - US
Nine months after IR solutions provider 51job first announced it had received a preliminary non-binding Proposal from DCP Capital Partners to acquire all of its shares for US$79.05/common share, 51job announced yesterday it has entered into a definitive privatisation agreement. The price remains unchanged, which is also in keeping with the non-binding proposal announced on the 4 May, wherein Ocean Link and CEO Rick Yan joined DCP in the consortium to take the company private. The big news is that Recruit Holdings (6098 JP), 51job's largest shareholder with 34.8%, has now joined the consortium. The merger requires the approval of two-thirds of all shareholders at an EGM, and the consortium has 54.9% in the bag.
- Based on recent precedents, the EGM could potentially be held late September, with a possible completion around mid-November.
- I still think this looks like a very opportunistic deal, well below the Covid-cliff. But I'd buy here - the spread is quite decent.
- This deal is by no means a sure thing. But even if the EGM resolution passes, minorities are afforded dissension rights. And as recently seen in the recent privatisations of Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US) and China Biologic Products (CBPO US), shareholders have taken up that cause.
Sogou Inc (SOGO US) (Mkt Cap: $3.2bn; Liquidity: $5mn)
Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine Sogou, majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), entered into a definitive agreement for a "Going-Private Transaction" at US$9/share. Additionally, Sohu entered into a SPA with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, which would result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou. Therefore the Merger would be a short-form merger - there is no vote.The deal appeared to be a lock, until Sogou's 1 December SEC filing, wherein the termination date for the SPA was pushed out to 31 July, from 29 March previously, to allow clearance from the PRC regulatory authorities, specifically State Administration for Market Regulation or SAMR.
- What seemed an ample extension at the time now appears less assured as SAMR bears down on the tech sector. This muddies when (and potentially if) the merger goes through. Plus the knock-on effect to Sohu which would pocket ~US$1.2bn under the merger compared to its current maker cap of ~US$0.7bn. But Tencent is unlikely to walk - not at this Offer price.
My takeaway here is one of a delay in completing the merger, and not one where the merger will be abandoned. One month after announcing the "administration penalty" from SAMR, Alibaba announced (page 7) it expects revenue of RMB930bn in FY22, an increase of 30%. This would suggest the new regulatory rules on data will not materially impact earnings. This also implies Tencent will more more likely persevere with the merger of Sogou, although the SPA termination date may be further delayed to accommodate SAMR.
- I don't expect Tencent to exercise some SPA MAC clause. It is getting a bargain for Sogou. The takeover at $9/share is a discount to the IPO price of $13/share just under four years ago. Plus Sogou is sitting on net cash of ~US$1bn as at 31 March 2021. That cash may come in handy if (or when) dissenters exercise their rights.
(link to my insight: Sohu/Sogou: Persuasive Situation Amid Ongoing Antitrust Investigations.
M&A - EUROPE
INDEX REBALS
On 10 November 2020, GS Holdings (078930 KS) announced the merger of two of its retail units GS Retail (007070 KS) and GS Home Shopping (028150 KS). The merger ratio was announced as 4.22 shares of GS Retail for 1 share of GS Home. The KRX has now announced the deletion of GS Home from the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) and the inclusion of Modetour Network (080160 KS) with the change becoming effective after the close of trading on 28 June. Link to Brian's insight: KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: Modetour to Replace GS Home Shopping; GS Retail Weight Increase in KOSPI2.
HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect. Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September. Brian sees 28 potential inclusions to the HSCI at the rebalance and 15 potential deletions, plus another 7 close deletions. Only 10 of the potential deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect buy list since the other deletions are either not a part of Stock Connect currently or have listed A-shares. Link to Brian's insight: HSCI Index Rebalance & Stock Connect: Expected Changes in September.
ASX200 Index Rebalance. S&P DJI announced the deletion of Vocus Communications (VOC AU) from the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) after the close of trading on 25 June. There will be no addition to the index since the number of index constituents will move back to 200 from 201 since Endeavour Group is being added to the index at the close on 23 June following its demerger from Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU). Vocus will also be deleted from the MSCI and FTSE indices with those deletions also likely taking place at the close on 25 June. Announcements are awaited from the index providers. Link to Brian's insight: ASX200 Index Rebalance: VOCUS Deletion, WOW Spinoff.
Following the switch from Alibaba Group (BABA US) to Alibaba Group (9988 HK) in the MSCI and FTSE indices, the next stocks that could see a listing switch at the upcoming Semi-Annual Index Rebalances are NetEase (9999 HK) / NetEase Inc (NTES US) and JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) / JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US). Brian sees both HK listings meeting the requirements for a listing switch. The FTSE switch should take place at the September SAIR and the MSCI switch will take place at the November SAIR. There will be no market trade on the stocks but there will be a resultant liquidity shift from the ADR to the HK listing. This will also impact the closing auction in Hong Kong since there will be more liquidity going through as a result of passive trading activity. Link to Brian's insight: JD.com and NetEase Switch In FTSE & MSCI Indices.
Jakarta Composite Index. The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ), Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ). The biggest falls in index weight are expected on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ), Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Emtek (EMTK IJ), Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ) and Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ). Link to Brian's insight: Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting.
OTHER M&A & EVENT UPDATES
- Vocus Communications (VOC AU)'s shareholders overwhelmingly approve MIRA's Scheme.
- Yuexiu Services (6626 HK) priced at $4.88/share, right at the low end of the IPO range. Not a great look.
- The Offer Doc for WH Group (288 HK) has been pushed out to the 31 July.
And as expected, Boral Ltd (BLD AU) gets bumped. Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU) will pay $7.40 cash if they get to 34.5%. Or $7.30 cash if they get to 29.5%. The Offer has been extended to 2 July.
CCASS
My ongoing series flags large moves (~10%) in CCASS holdings over the past week or so, moves which are often outside normal market transactions. These may be indicative of share pledges. Or potential takeovers. Or simply help understand volume swings.
Often these moves can easily be explained - the placement of new shares, rights issue, movements subsequent to a takeover, lock-up expiry, amongst others. For those mentioned below, I could not find an obvious reason for the CCASS move.
Name | % chg | Into | Out of |
| Crosstec (3893 HK) | 62.50% | Kingsway | Outside CCASS |
| World Super (8612 HK) | 31.68% | Sun Int'l | Outside CCASS |
| Impro Precision Industries (1286 HK) | 21.24% | HSBC | Citi |
| CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK) | 11.98% | GS | MS |
| Blue River (498 HK) | 28.53% | Planetree | Oshidori |
| Prosper One International (1470 HK) | 75.00% | Changjiang | UBS |
| Affluent (1757 HK) | 75.00% | Astrum | Outside CCASS |
| China Vast Industrial Urban (6166 HK) | 16.58% | CCB | Haitiong |
| Source: HKEx | |||
The following large movement(s) concern recently listed companies, and therefore are (likely) lock-up related.
Name | % chg | Into | Out of |
| Everest Medicines (1952 HK) | 13.28% | GS | Outside CCASS |
| Unity (2195 HK) | 13.48% | Zhiong Jia | Outside CCASS |
| Jiayuan Services Holdings Limited (1153 HK) | 73.56% | Morton | Outside CCASS |
| Channel Micro (2115 HK) | 20.96% | Yuanta | Mason |
| Netjoy (2131 HK) | 12.52% | China Galaxy | Outside CCASS |
| Source: HKEx | |||
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