'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE 19th April - Overshoot

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 20th April - Take Aways and LI(Not)FULL

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE - 12th April • To Each Their Own

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 14th April - Peak Anxiety

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/174/original/File%202020-04-16%206%2023%2053.jpeg?1586985893" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128174"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Tokyo Metropolitan Government</div><p><strong>FLATTENING</strong> - Tokyo saw 127 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, 35% below the peak number of 197. The rolling 7-day average number of cases is now flattening out. For Japan, the case count rose by 315, 56% below the peak of April 12th. The number of nationwide deaths rose by seven to 169 for a CFR of 2.0. Due to the lagging effect, the number of fatalities and can be expected to stay in double-digits, particularly as more care homes become infected. </p><p><strong>BUREAUCRACY</strong> - Over 47,000 businesses in Tokyo have consulted labour bureaus concerning the government's 'employment adjustment subsidy', and 2,859 applications have been submitted. Of these, 214 applications have been submitted, but just two have so far received subsidies.  Similar delays have been reported in other prefectures. These delays, as well as the controversy over the exclusion of the self-employed, have prompted the heads of the LDP and Komeito coalition parties to call for an immediate ¥100,000 cash transfer to all citizens.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/175/original/2020-04-16_06-51-02.png?1586987506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128175"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • JNTO</div><p><strong>INBOUND</strong> - Tourist arrivals are now down 93% year-on-year putting the government's target of 40m visitors and their ¥8t of spending this year under a cloud. Perhaps the more interesting question is who and from where were the 194,000 tourists who entered Japan last month?</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/181/original/2020-04-16_07-39-54.png?1586990425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128181"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BOJ STEPPING UP</strong> - Interestingly, the Bank of Japan intervened yesterday despite the market not falling at any point below the levels reached the previous day. The percentage of value traded remains high at 4.76%. </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. As we are winding down the first wave of reports, we have reverted to covering all companies rather than just the large-caps. The positive/neutral/negative balance for the five results was 1:0:4; and for the 19 revisions/forecasts, the split was 8:1:10. Only one of the three companies announcing full-year results did not make a forecast for the current year.</p><p><strong>SFI TRANSMISSION</strong> - Lastly, we would recommend a <a href="https://www.santafe.edu/research/projects/transmission-sfi-insights-covid-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">series</a> of short papers from the Santa Fe Institute on the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of complexity science and in particular this <a href="https://sfi-edu.s3.amazonaws.com/sfi-edu/production/uploads/ckeditor/2020/04/08/t-010-miller.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contribution</a> from renowned value manager, Bill Miller which opens as follows:-</p><blockquote><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>There have been four great stock market buying opportunities in my lifetime. This is the fifth Bill Miller, Miller Value Partners</strong></p></blockquote>

Source • Tokyo Metropolitan GovernmentFLATTENING - Tokyo saw 127 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 yesterday, 35% below the peak number of 197. The rolling 7-day average number of cases is now flattening out. For Japan, the case count rose by 315, 56% below the peak of April 12th. The number of nationwide deaths rose by seven to 169 for a CFR of 2.0. Due to the lagging effect, the number of fatalities and can be expected to stay in double-digits, particularly as more care homes become infected. BUREAUCRACY - Over 47,000 businesses in Tokyo have consulted labour bureaus concerning the government's 'employment adjustment subsidy', and 2,859 applications have been submitted. Of these, 214 applications have been submitted, but just two have so far received subsidies.  Similar delays have been reported in other prefectures. These delays, as well as the controversy over the exclusion of the self-employed, have prompted the heads of the LDP and Komeito coalition parties to call for an immediate ¥100,000 cash transfer to all citizens.Source • JNTOINBOUND - Tourist arrivals are now down 93% year-on-year putting the government's target of 40m visitors and their ¥8t of spending this year under a cloud. Perhaps the more interesting question is who and from where were the 194,000 tourists who entered Japan last month?Source • Japan AnalyticsBOJ STEPPING UP - Interestingly, the Bank of Japan intervened yesterday despite the market not falling at any point below the levels reached the previous day. The percentage of value traded remains high at 4.76%. In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. As we are winding down the first wave of reports, we have reverted to covering all companies rather than just the large-caps. The positive/neutral/negative balance for the five results was 1:0:4; and for the 19 revisions/forecasts, the split was 8:1:10. Only one of the three companies announcing full-year results did not make a forecast for the current year.SFI TRANSMISSION - Lastly, we would recommend a series of short papers from the Santa Fe Institute on the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of complexity science and in particular this contribution from renowned value manager, Bill Miller which opens as follows:-There have been four great stock market buying opportunities in my lifetime. This is the fifth Bill Miller, Miller Value Partners

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 15th April - Flattening