'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 14th April - Peak Anxiety

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 15th April - Flattening

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 9th April - Communication Breakdown

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE - 12th April • To Each Their Own

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 8th April - Getting to 80%▼& The GDP Contraction Lottery

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/809/original/2020-04-14_04-54-14.png?1586807683" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127809"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>A CLEARER VISION</strong> - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kirk-boodry" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1920" rel="noopener">Kirk Boodry</a> and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/781/original/2020-04-13_18-22-38.png?1586769778" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127781"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SNA</div><p><strong>HOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE</strong> - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/816/original/File%202020-04-14%207%2027%2032.jpeg?1586816887" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • TMG <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/127/818/original/IMG_1317.jpg?1586817094" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="127818"></figure>
</div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>MONDAY CASE COUNT</strong> - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.</p><p><strong>NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE</strong> - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.</p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsA CLEARER VISION - Softbank last made an earnings forecast in December 2010; however, the startling losses at the Vision Fund have prompted them to be more forthcoming, perhaps not entirely unrelated to their buyback programme.  The revisions amount to a cut of 3% to forecast for annual operating profit and net income for the market overall. We will leave the implications for the NAV discount to Kirk Boodry and others to fill in; however, we would note that the more traditional revised BPS is now 1.26. Source • SNAHOKKAIDO'S SECOND WAVE - Hokkaido has just reimposed a prefectural-level emergency having seen its second wave of infections after lifting restrictions on 19th March. Ten prefecture are imposing various degrees of quasi-lockdowns after Ishikawa-ken followed Aichi's example yesterday.Source • TMG 
Source • NHKMONDAY CASE COUNT - Tokyo saw just 91 new confirmed cases yesterday; however, Monday's tend to be quieter days due to a lower amount of testing. The rest of the country saw 125 new cases - only three prefectures saw more than ten new cases.NOT SO FULL DISCLOSURE - Japan's FSA is planning to postpone the deadline for submitting yuho annual reports for listed companies closing in March for three months, until the end of September, given the impact of the COVID-19.  The unaudited short-form kessan tanshin statements will continue, however, certain items including data on shareholdings will be delayed. Annual General Meetings for March year-end companies that generally take place in June will also have to be postponed.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 63 results was 29:9:25; for the 27 revisions/forecasts, the split was 11:1:15. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision