'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 15th April - Flattening

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 16th April - Roadmaps

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE 19th April - Overshoot

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 9th April - Communication Breakdown

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET (& COVID-19) UPDATE - 12th April • To Each Their Own

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 13th April - A Clearer Vision

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/030/original/2020-04-15_06-24-46.png?1586899501" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128030"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Arbor Data Science</div><p><strong>PEAK ANXIETY</strong> - As Japan's COVID-19 case-count (8,006) and fatalities (151) continue to rise, public anxiety, as exemplified by symptom search on Google, is rising as is online criticism of the government's measured approach.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/036/original/File%202020-04-15%203%2004%2046.jpeg?1586899729" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/037/original/File%202020-04-15%203%2006%2028.jpeg?1586899741" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128037"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/039/original/File%202020-04-15%203%2005%2041.jpeg?1586899760" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128039"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Apple</div><p><strong>MOBILITY TRENDS</strong> - Apple is now using direction requests in Apple Maps to <a href="https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility" target="_blank" rel="noopener">chart</a> 'mobility trends' around the world. Transit mobility is Tokyo is 51% below the level of three months ago and is 42% lower across Japan. The data for other countries illustrates the more limited impact of Japan's containment measures and in our view is a reasonable measure of the relative effect on GDP and supports our bullish view on 'domestic' Japan.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/042/original/2020-04-15_06-39-49.png?1586900420" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128042"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World in Data</div><p><strong>OUR WORLD IN DATA</strong> - We have long been a fan of our alma mater Oxford University's Global Change Data Lab. Their COVID-19 slide deck was released yesterday and is well worth your time. We have selected a few slides below that are relevant to Japan.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/043/original/File%202020-04-14%2018%2032%2003.jpeg?1586900548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128043"></figure><ul><li>Japan's fatalities are doubling every ten days - one of the lowest rates globally.</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/044/original/File%202020-04-14%2018%2039%2010.jpeg?1586900641" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128044"></figure><ul><li>Japan's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.8% is within the lower bound and does not suggest an under-reporting of cases.</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/045/original/File%202020-04-14%2018%2040%2043.jpeg?1586900773" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128045"></figure><ul><li>Japan's CFR has been steadily declining and is now below that od Taiwan and South Korea.</li></ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/046/original/File%202020-04-14%2018%2033%2050.jpeg?1586900867" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128046"></figure><ul><li>Lastly, Japan's death per million population is the lowest in the developed world.</li></ul><p></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/052/original/2020-04-15_06-53-50.png?1586901264" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128052"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THE OTHER ZOOM</strong> - On a lighter note, ZOOM (6694 JP) is a Japanese niche audio recording equipment specialist. The recent 75% 'pop' in the share price may be a case of mistaken identity ;).</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/055/original/2020-04-15_07-06-30.png?1586902007" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>IN OTHER NEWS</strong> - We have always found the case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP)</a> as limited at best and were surprised to see Ichigo Asset Management, and less so INCJ, inject new capital into the business which had a negative net worth of ¥108b in December. After an investigation which delayed the reporting of their third-quarter results, it now appears that the company has been engaging in improper accounting practices. An overvaluation of inventories has inflated consolidated operating income by ¥7.7 billion. The amounts are a small drop in the ocean of red ink displayed above. OF greater interest is who, if anyone, will 'take responsibility'. We do not consider the shares 'investment-grade'.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/128/022/original/2020-04-15_04-21-02.png?1586892129" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="128022"></figure><div style="text-align: center;" class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>MID AND SMALL</strong> - Lastly in this section, we would note that TOPIX Small is lagging TOPIX in this 'FOMO rally'. Smaller stocks are more domestically-orientated and for those without liquidity or sizing constraints trade at significantly more attractive valuations.</p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 96 results was 39:15:42; for the 39 revisions/forecasts, the split was 18:4:17. We are now 'winding down' for the results for February/May/August/November companies. There were no large-cap revisions yesterday and only six large-cap results. Of the 59 companies that reported full-year results yesterday, only 30 made initial forecasts for the current year and none of the five large-caps did so. As with the delay in annual reports discussed in our previous Insight, investors will have to learn to 'make do' with much less information this year.</p><p>By popular request, we shall keep providing this series of Insights to reflect the evolving response of Japan's corporates to the pandemic.  </p>

Source • Arbor Data SciencePEAK ANXIETY - As Japan's COVID-19 case-count (8,006) and fatalities (151) continue to rise, public anxiety, as exemplified by symptom search on Google, is rising as is online criticism of the government's measured approach.Source • AppleMOBILITY TRENDS - Apple is now using direction requests in Apple Maps to chart 'mobility trends' around the world. Transit mobility is Tokyo is 51% below the level of three months ago and is 42% lower across Japan. The data for other countries illustrates the more limited impact of Japan's containment measures and in our view is a reasonable measure of the relative effect on GDP and supports our bullish view on 'domestic' Japan.Source • Our World in DataOUR WORLD IN DATA - We have long been a fan of our alma mater Oxford University's Global Change Data Lab. Their COVID-19 slide deck was released yesterday and is well worth your time. We have selected a few slides below that are relevant to Japan.Japan's fatalities are doubling every ten days - one of the lowest rates globally.Japan's Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of 1.8% is within the lower bound and does not suggest an under-reporting of cases.Japan's CFR has been steadily declining and is now below that od Taiwan and South Korea.Lastly, Japan's death per million population is the lowest in the developed world.Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE OTHER ZOOM - On a lighter note, ZOOM (6694 JP) is a Japanese niche audio recording equipment specialist. The recent 75% 'pop' in the share price may be a case of mistaken identity ;).Source • Japan AnalyticsIN OTHER NEWS - We have always found the case for Japan Display (6740 JP) as limited at best and were surprised to see Ichigo Asset Management, and less so INCJ, inject new capital into the business which had a negative net worth of ¥108b in December. After an investigation which delayed the reporting of their third-quarter results, it now appears that the company has been engaging in improper accounting practices. An overvaluation of inventories has inflated consolidated operating income by ¥7.7 billion. The amounts are a small drop in the ocean of red ink displayed above. OF greater interest is who, if anyone, will 'take responsibility'. We do not consider the shares 'investment-grade'.Source • Japan AnalyticsMID AND SMALL - Lastly in this section, we would note that TOPIX Small is lagging TOPIX in this 'FOMO rally'. Smaller stocks are more domestically-orientated and for those without liquidity or sizing constraints trade at significantly more attractive valuations.In the DETAIL below, we shall review the large-cap results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made yesterday. The positive/neutral/negative balance for all 96 results was 39:15:42; for the 39 revisions/forecasts, the split was 18:4:17. We are now 'winding down' for the results for February/May/August/November companies. There were no large-cap revisions yesterday and only six large-cap results. Of the 59 companies that reported full-year results yesterday, only 30 made initial forecasts for the current year and none of the five large-caps did so. As with the delay in annual reports discussed in our previous Insight, investors will have to learn to 'make do' with much less information this year.By popular request, we shall keep providing this series of Insights to reflect the evolving response of Japan's corporates to the pandemic.  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results 14th April - Peak Anxiety