'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 8th July - Aeon Group - Sum < Parts

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10th July - Small Change

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 3rd July • The Next Wave

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th July - Man(I) Overboard!

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/786/original/2020-07-08_06-33-57.png?1594157660" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144786"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/788/original/2020-07-08_06-35-53.png?1594157763" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144788"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/790/original/2020-07-08_06-48-56.png?1594158549" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144790"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>DESTINATION BLUES</strong> - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>14 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-0.6</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.4ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.9</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
DESTINATION BLUES - Destination malls are proving to be this century's department stores, for which COVID-19 has proved to be an unwelcome 'kicker', while turnover leases add volatility to the mix. The foreign shareholder ratio and the Relative Price Score both peaked in 2014, despite the 455 increase in operating profits in the last five years. The revised profit target of ¥30 billion is less than that achieved in FY2008 when revenues were one-third current levels.  Residual returns have been negative since FY2019-Q2; our model suggests the shares are still overvalued at 0.82x book.
DAILY STATS
14 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-0.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -3.7% Quarter YoY* / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.4ppt
 8 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 3 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.9


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled