'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10th July - Small Change

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 6th July - Man(I) Overboard!

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 8th July - Aeon Group - Sum < Parts

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 7th July - Aeon Mauled

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/201/original/File%202020-07-10%204%2058%2031.jpeg?1594328270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145201"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World In Data</div>
<p><strong>COVID-19 RETURNS</strong> - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of<strong> 224</strong> and a three-month nationwide high of <strong>354</strong>. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/202/original/2020-07-10_06-33-39.png?1594330447" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145202"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/203/original/2020-07-10_06-37-00.png?1594330642" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>31 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.9</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-0.9ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Our World In Data
COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month nationwide high of 354. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.
Source • Japan Analytics
NEW LOWS - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.
DAILY STATS
31 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.9

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.9ppt
 12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows