'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 13th July

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th July - Uzumi, UUUM, Toho, Saizeriya, Create, Rakus

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 15th July - Money Forward, TKP, Nachi-Fujikoshi, Tokyo Steel

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

Yaskawa – Developed Market Deceleration Striking

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 8th July - Aeon Group - Sum < Parts

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/396/original/2020-07-11_10-05-20.png?1594454466" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145396"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>SMALL CHANGE</strong> - With over half of the companies with February, May, August and November year-ends having reported, the gap between the performance of larger and smaller capitalisation companies is widening again - as was the case prior to the March COVID 'crash'. The former are benefiting from a relatively more robust earnings momentum and the willingness of shareholders to look through to 2022. For the latter, their mostly-retail investor base is focused more on the prolongation of current operating losses despite, in many cases, ample Net Financial Assets.  42% of companies reporting on Friday had net losses for the last three months on an average decline in revenues of 14%. For the next reporting 'cohort' with one less 'normal' month, these statistics will be worse.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>83 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 19 Positive / 3 Neutral / 61 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -14.2% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -0.7ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 42%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>31 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: </strong>13 Positive / 4 Neutral / 14 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>5 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.9</li>
</ul></div>


 Source • Japan Analytics
SMALL CHANGE - With over half of the companies with February, May, August and November year-ends having reported, the gap between the performance of larger and smaller capitalisation companies is widening again - as was the case prior to the March COVID 'crash'. The former are benefiting from a relatively more robust earnings momentum and the willingness of shareholders to look through to 2022. For the latter, their mostly-retail investor base is focused more on the prolongation of current operating losses despite, in many cases, ample Net Financial Assets.  42% of companies reporting on Friday had net losses for the last three months on an average decline in revenues of 14%. For the next reporting 'cohort' with one less 'normal' month, these statistics will be worse.
DAILY STATS
83 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 19 Positive / 3 Neutral / 61 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -14.2% Quarter YoY / -0.9% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.7ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 42%
 31 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 13 Positive / 4 Neutral / 14 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 5 Positive / 1 Neutral / 7 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.9


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10th July - Small Change