'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

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Japan: Fortnightly Update - And So It Goes

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/119/968/original/2020-02-26_03-36-31.png?1582661261" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="119968"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>DELAYED ONSET</strong> - The Japanese market's response to the growing number of Covid-19 cases outside China and Yokohama docks was delayed by the Monday holiday for the new Emperor's birthday. Tuesday's 3.3% decline will be followed by another substantial decline today following Wall Street's overnight 3% decline and the Yen's breach of ¥110 against the US Dollar.</p>
<p><strong>ILL-EQUIPPED</strong> -  Japan is as ill-equipped as the US to handle large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. The country's greater reliance on public transportation and preference for overcrowded open-plan offices, however, makes containment more of challenge. For security reasons, most Japanese companies do not permit employees to work from home or use personal computing devices for work. Many companies require employees to lock their office PCs when they take a bathroom break. For cultural and practical reasons, Chinese or Italian-style cordoning off of infected communities will prove impossible to implement to here.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/119/981/original/2020-01-30_06-58-37.png?1582667889" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="119981"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK World</div>
<p><a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200225_31/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>'BASIC' POLICY</strong></a> - The government's 'basic policy' announced <a href="https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200225_31/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yesterday</a> relies on post-symptomatic self-isolation and delegates the decision-making on the holding of large public gatherings or home working to the organisers or companies affected. These measures are already proving to be insufficient, and the IOC has mooted the possibility of a cancellation of the cherished summer Olympic Games - an outcome the government appear desperate to avoid, but may well have encouraged by their laxity. Japan's Covid-19 'policy' could best be described, with apologies to the '<em>The Flying Tigers</em>" as being 'on a wing and a prayer'.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/119/980/original/2020-02-26_06-55-08.png?1582667752" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="119980"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Dentsu</div>
<p><strong>FROM 'TEAMWORK' TO 'HOMEWORK'</strong> - Following the confirmation of an employees' infection last night, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12434:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu (4324 JP)</a> is requiring all employees in their head office to work from home from today until further notice. This decision will prove to be an interesting challenge for a company that prides itself on 'teamwork'. Many more Japanese companies will be forced to adopt similar working practices. </p>
<p><strong>TESTING THE LOWS</strong> - Our All-Market Composite has declined by 7% from the recent peak of 20th January. Yesterday's decline was the steepest one-day decline since December 2018, although a further 13% decline is required to match the low reached on Christmas Day that year. In the<strong> DETAIL</strong> section below, we will look at several market indicators to determine test if the conditions for a bear-market rally have been met. </p>
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Source: Japan Analytics
DELAYED ONSET - The Japanese market's response to the growing number of Covid-19 cases outside China and Yokohama docks was delayed by the Monday holiday for the new Emperor's birthday. Tuesday's 3.3% decline will be followed by another substantial decline today following Wall Street's overnight 3% decline and the Yen's breach of ¥110 against the US Dollar.
ILL-EQUIPPED -  Japan is as ill-equipped as the US to handle large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. The country's greater reliance on public transportation and preference for overcrowded open-plan offices, however, makes containment more of challenge. For security reasons, most Japanese companies do not permit employees to work from home or use personal computing devices for work. Many companies require employees to lock their office PCs when they take a bathroom break. For cultural and practical reasons, Chinese or Italian-style cordoning off of infected communities will prove impossible to implement to here.
Source • NHK World
'BASIC' POLICY - The government's 'basic policy' announced yesterday relies on post-symptomatic self-isolation and delegates the decision-making on the holding of large public gatherings or home working to the organisers or companies affected. These measures are already proving to be insufficient, and the IOC has mooted the possibility of a cancellation of the cherished summer Olympic Games - an outcome the government appear desperate to avoid, but may well have encouraged by their laxity. Japan's Covid-19 'policy' could best be described, with apologies to the 'The Flying Tigers" as being 'on a wing and a prayer'.
Source • Dentsu
FROM 'TEAMWORK' TO 'HOMEWORK' - Following the confirmation of an employees' infection last night, Dentsu (4324 JP) is requiring all employees in their head office to work from home from today until further notice. This decision will prove to be an interesting challenge for a company that prides itself on 'teamwork'. Many more Japanese companies will be forced to adopt similar working practices. 
TESTING THE LOWS - Our All-Market Composite has declined by 7% from the recent peak of 20th January. Yesterday's decline was the steepest one-day decline since December 2018, although a further 13% decline is required to match the low reached on Christmas Day that year. In the DETAIL section below, we will look at several market indicators to determine test if the conditions for a bear-market rally have been met. 


🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • On a Wing and a Prayer