Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

A veteran with 19-year experience in equity research.

Geographical coverage:
* Companies operating in China, but listed in Hong Kong and the U.S.
* Previously China A-share (listed in mainland China).

Equity sector coverage:
* Chinese App / Internet-based consumption in China, e.g., Alibaba, Tencent, etc.
* Previously covered education, transportation, telecom, power, bank, advertisement, hotel, etc.

Research methods:
* Generally bottom-up.
* Talk to related people on the ground.  Talk to readers and independent writers for analyzing a news portal.  Talk to parents and teachers for analyzing a tutoring school. 
* Visit stores and show photos as evidence in notes.
* Do technical analysis when finding a short-seller attacking an equity.

Languages:
* English
* Mandarin Chinese (Official language of China)
* Shanghainese (Language of Shanghai, the most developed city in China)
* Cantonese (Language of Hong Kong and Canton Province, one of the most developed provinces in China)

Overseas Chinese Equities

Bilibili (BILI): Plunged Before 2Q21 Result, But Still a Short Selling Target

Bilibili (BILI): 2Q21, Rapid Growth and Record Loss, Significantly Overvalued

Bilibili: (BILI): 3Q21, Revenue and Users Growing Fast, Loss Problem Larger than It Looks

Bilibili Secondary Listing - Volatile but Should Be Hot

Bilibili (BILI): Business Breakout, An Story of What BILI Was and Will Be

Bilibili Secondary Trading - Hot Demand, Baba Takes Another Bite, but Still Set for a Weak Listing

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Bifurcated Chinese Express Market Developing

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>In game industry, distribution channels have lost bargaining power over developers.</li>
<li>All BILI's video related businesses grew strongly in 1Q21.</li>
<li>We do not see any signs that the company will break even in the near future.</li>
<li>We set a downside of 17% and a price target of HK$80.</li>
<li>Also see the business change last year at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bilibili-bili-business-breakout-an-story-of-what-bili-was-and-will-be" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48902" rel="noopener">Bilibili (BILI): Business Breakout, An Story of What BILI Was and Will Be</a>.</li>
</ul>


In game industry, distribution channels have lost bargaining power over developers.
All BILI's video related businesses grew strongly in 1Q21.
We do not see any signs that the company will break even in the near future.
We set a downside of 17% and a price target of HK$80.
Also see the business change last year at Bilibili (BILI): Business Breakout, An Story of What BILI Was and Will Be.


Bilibili (BILI): 1Q21, Weak Game, Strong Video, and Endless Loss