Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

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Malaysia: Growing Despair As Covid-19 Crisis Spirals Out of Control

Indonesia Strategy - Rolling the Dice on COVID-19?

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CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

While the US was the epicentre of the world's first Covid wave (peaking in January 2021), and India the second (peaking in early-May 2021), the epicentre of the current third global Covid wave is ASEAN. While Indonesia was initially the worst hit, this wave has spread to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (the latter two among the most successful in combatting Covid in 2020), with some scares in Singapore and the Philippines as well. ASEAN's real GDP is estimated to have grown over 10% YoY in 2Q 2021 (helped by a very depressed base from 2Q 2020) but the renewed Covid surge is set to weaken the economic recovery in 2H 2021. In July 2021, Indonesia has had more new Covid cases than any other nation globally. But the worst of Indonesia's Covid wave was reached on 18 July 2021 (at a 7-day moving average of 50,039 new daily infections), and these have since receded by nearly a fifth. The biggest hit will occur in 3Q 2021 growth, but Indonesia's real GDP should exceed 6% YoY in 4Q 2021, bringing full-year growth to about 5%. The worst-hit ASEAN economy (and polity) is Malaysia, where there have been 3 successive Covid waves in 2021, the last of which has not yet reached its peak. Consequently, the greatest economic and political uncertainty in 2H 2021 will be in Malaysia, which has the highest per capita Covid case load in South or South-east Asia (at 31,334 cases per million population). We expect real GDP to grow no more than 3% YoY in 2H 2021 despite a low base. Thailand and Vietnam, both extremely successful in containing Covid in 2020 (although Thailand's tourism-dependent economy nonetheless suffered a severe hit from the drying-up of tourist arrivals) are now seeing their first wave of Covid infections, in July 2021. The peak of the current Covid wave is not yet detectable in either country. Vietnam's Covid wave is concentrated in the south (Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding provinces), but Thailand's is concentrated around the main economic centre, Bangkok, and its surrounding provinces. However, the base effect is more helpful in Thialand than Vietnam (the latter having continued to grow in all four quarters of 2020), so we expect Vietnam's real GDP to grow 5% YoY and Thailand's 5-6% YoY in 2H 2021. Despite a major alarm being raised in Singapore as well, the latest Covid wave is very mild in the island-republic, and real GDP in Singapore is consequently likely to grow 7.2% in 2021.

While the US was the epicentre of the world's first Covid wave (peaking in January 2021), and India the second (peaking in early-May 2021), the epicentre of the current third global Covid wave is ASEAN. While Indonesia was initially the worst hit, this wave has spread to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam (the latter two among the most successful in combatting Covid in 2020), with some scares in Singapore and the Philippines as well. ASEAN's real GDP is estimated to have grown over 10% YoY in 2Q 2021 (helped by a very depressed base from 2Q 2020) but the renewed Covid surge is set to weaken the economic recovery in 2H 2021. In July 2021, Indonesia has had more new Covid cases than any other nation globally. But the worst of Indonesia's Covid wave was reached on 18 July 2021 (at a 7-day moving average of 50,039 new daily infections), and these have since receded by nearly a fifth. The biggest hit will occur in 3Q 2021 growth, but Indonesia's real GDP should exceed 6% YoY in 4Q 2021, bringing full-year growth to about 5%. The worst-hit ASEAN economy (and polity) is Malaysia, where there have been 3 successive Covid waves in 2021, the last of which has not yet reached its peak. Consequently, the greatest economic and political uncertainty in 2H 2021 will be in Malaysia, which has the highest per capita Covid case load in South or South-east Asia (at 31,334 cases per million population). We expect real GDP to grow no more than 3% YoY in 2H 2021 despite a low base. Thailand and Vietnam, both extremely successful in containing Covid in 2020 (although Thailand's tourism-dependent economy nonetheless suffered a severe hit from the drying-up of tourist arrivals) are now seeing their first wave of Covid infections, in July 2021. The peak of the current Covid wave is not yet detectable in either country. Vietnam's Covid wave is concentrated in the south (Ho Chi Minh City and surrounding provinces), but Thailand's is concentrated around the main economic centre, Bangkok, and its surrounding provinces. However, the base effect is more helpful in Thialand than Vietnam (the latter having continued to grow in all four quarters of 2020), so we expect Vietnam's real GDP to grow 5% YoY and Thailand's 5-6% YoY in 2H 2021. Despite a major alarm being raised in Singapore as well, the latest Covid wave is very mild in the island-republic, and real GDP in Singapore is consequently likely to grow 7.2% in 2021.  

ASEAN as Epicentre of the Covid Crisis: Malaysia Worst Off, Indonesia Improving