Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

SPX Impulse off of Long Support, Next Hurdle

Fed and US Corporates in Tussle over Inflation

US Equities: Politics Complicates Fed Policy Outlook as Supply Constraints Impact Corporate Profits

US Treasuries Defy Conventional Wisdom Due to Powerful Buying Forces

Early EM Rate Hikes Supporting EM Currencies

Hawkish Rates Markets Ahead of Themselves

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Flattening Treasury yield curves, particularly at the back-end, are rarely bullish for risk assets. </li>
<li>When combined, as now, with a steepening front-end they warn of upcoming credit problems.  </li>
<li>Bonds are telling us that economies are breaking-down.  Low ‘real’ carry compromises the long-term outlook for bonds, but we must not ignore their warning message for 2022  </li>
</ul>


Flattening Treasury yield curves, particularly at the back-end, are rarely bullish for risk assets. 
When combined, as now, with a steepening front-end they warn of upcoming credit problems.  
Bonds are telling us that economies are breaking-down.  Low ‘real’ carry compromises the long-term outlook for bonds, but we must not ignore their warning message for 2022  


A Wonkish Warning From Bonds For 2022