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Early EM Rate Hikes Supporting EM Currencies

Underneath the Bonnet of “sticky” Global Inflation

Macro Data Dog Not Wagging FX Market Tail

Hawkish Rates Markets Ahead of Themselves

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Olivier Desbarres

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4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We think US inflation will rise further in coming months and lift short-end Treasury yields and where US Treasury yields go other government bond yields tend to follow.</li>
<li>US companies have rapidly raised their prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and because they've been able to without hurting their bottom line . </li>
<li>The Fed has little control over international energy and commodity prices and coincidently is seemingly intent on letting consumer demand (and the economy) run hot for a while.</li>
</ul>


We think US inflation will rise further in coming months and lift short-end Treasury yields and where US Treasury yields go other government bond yields tend to follow.
US companies have rapidly raised their prices, particularly for goods, because they have had to (rising input costs) and because they've been able to without hurting their bottom line . 
The Fed has little control over international energy and commodity prices and coincidently is seemingly intent on letting consumer demand (and the economy) run hot for a while.


Fed and US Corporates in Tussle over Inflation