Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

SPX Impulse off of Long Support, Next Hurdle

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

Historically, Democratic Administrations have been more inclined to support continuity in the realm of leadership at the Fed, but President Biden is under pressure from within his own party not to re-appoint Chair Powell. President Biden's lack of urgency in filling pending vacancies on the Board of Governors could create pressure on the Fed to effectively articulate the direction of monetary policy.
Monetary policy uncertainty could be an unintended consequence of the political lack of urgency to fill looming vacancies on the Board of Governors, while the Biden Administration will be keen to avoid interest rate increases during an election year. Virtually all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members believe, however, that monetary policy settings no longer need to be in life-support mode.
US financial conditions have not tightened in the same manner as witnessed during the taper tantrum in 2013, thereby suggesting equity returns should be driven by corporate profits growth. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note should not breach 3% in the near-term, given the current forward guidance of the FOMC, and, consequently, bonds are unlikely to provide stiff competition for equities.
Supply chain dislocations are likely to persist for a longer-than-anticipated period. Rising pipeline cost pressures reduced the size of S&amp;P500 EPS positive surprises in Q3 and could further squeeze earnings momentum in the next two quarters, thereby increasing the ante on companies to raise selling prices.

Historically, Democratic Administrations have been more inclined to support continuity in the realm of leadership at the Fed, but President Biden is under pressure from within his own party not to re-appoint Chair Powell. President Biden's lack of urgency in filling pending vacancies on the Board of Governors could create pressure on the Fed to effectively articulate the direction of monetary policy.
Monetary policy uncertainty could be an unintended consequence of the political lack of urgency to fill looming vacancies on the Board of Governors, while the Biden Administration will be keen to avoid interest rate increases during an election year. Virtually all Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members believe, however, that monetary policy settings no longer need to be in life-support mode.
US financial conditions have not tightened in the same manner as witnessed during the taper tantrum in 2013, thereby suggesting equity returns should be driven by corporate profits growth. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note should not breach 3% in the near-term, given the current forward guidance of the FOMC, and, consequently, bonds are unlikely to provide stiff competition for equities.
Supply chain dislocations are likely to persist for a longer-than-anticipated period. Rising pipeline cost pressures reduced the size of S&amp;P500 EPS positive surprises in Q3 and could further squeeze earnings momentum in the next two quarters, thereby increasing the ante on companies to raise selling prices.

US Equities: Politics Complicates Fed Policy Outlook as Supply Constraints Impact Corporate Profits