Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cam Hui has been professionally involved in the financial markets since 1985 in a variety of roles, both as a quantitative equity portfolio manager and as a sell-side analyst. He graduated with a degree in Computer Science from the University of British Columbia in 1980 and obtained his CFA Charter in 1989.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

A Major Policy-Error? The Fixed Income Markets Think So

SPX (S&P500) Will Probably Hit 3200 (Minus 18%) …It Could Even Test 2500 (Minus 35%)!

Case for Lower Fed Policy Accommodation Becomes More Compelling, but Bond Investors Still Disagree

US Economy Enters H2 Robustly, but Fed's Outlook Being Increasingly Questioned by Bond Investors

US Growth Held Back by Supply Constraints, but US Treasury Investors Predict Slower Times Ahead

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

Now that a QE taper announcement is more or less baked in for this year, the next question is when the Fed will raise rates. The July FOMC minutes highlighted the point that the criteria for a taper decision is entirely different from that for a rate hike.Several participants emphasized that an announcement of a reduction in the Committee’s pace of asset purchases should not be interpreted as the beginning of a predetermined course for raising the federal funds rate from its current level. Those participants stressed that the Committee's assessment regarding the appropriate timing of an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was separate from its current deliberations on asset purchases and would be subject to the higher standard, as laid out in the Committee's outcome-based guidance on the federal funds rate. We believe investors need to be data-dependent rather than time-horizon dependent on the timing of Fed policy action. While there may be disagreement among Fed officials, a recent Bloomberg interview with Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed outlined many of the metrics that the Fed is monitoring, namely labour market tightness and the guideposts to full employment and inflation expectations, as well as the interaction between the Fed’s full employment and price stability mandates.

Now that a QE taper announcement is more or less baked in for this year, the next question is when the Fed will raise rates. The July FOMC minutes highlighted the point that the criteria for a taper decision is entirely different from that for a rate hike.Several participants emphasized that an announcement of a reduction in the Committee’s pace of asset purchases should not be interpreted as the beginning of a predetermined course for raising the federal funds rate from its current level. Those participants stressed that the Committee's assessment regarding the appropriate timing of an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was separate from its current deliberations on asset purchases and would be subject to the higher standard, as laid out in the Committee's outcome-based guidance on the federal funds rate. We believe investors need to be data-dependent rather than time-horizon dependent on the timing of Fed policy action. While there may be disagreement among Fed officials, a recent Bloomberg interview with Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed outlined many of the metrics that the Fed is monitoring, namely labour market tightness and the guideposts to full employment and inflation expectations, as well as the interaction between the Fed’s full employment and price stability mandates.

A Federal Reserve Rate Hike Roadmap