Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Powell Put in Play but Greater Challenges Ahead

US Treasuries Defy Conventional Wisdom Due to Powerful Buying Forces

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Steepening US Treasury curve obscures its more important message of flattening long-end and rising convexity</li>
<li>Policy rate expectations are rising and term premia are falling
</li>
<li>Investors’ positioning consistent with ‘stagflation’ outlook and higher credit risk</li>
<li>Bond investors are starting to believe Fed policy-makers will make a mistake
</li>
</ul>


Steepening US Treasury curve obscures its more important message of flattening long-end and rising convexity
Policy rate expectations are rising and term premia are falling

Investors’ positioning consistent with ‘stagflation’ outlook and higher credit risk
Bond investors are starting to believe Fed policy-makers will make a mistake



iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

A Major Policy-Error? The Fixed Income Markets Think So