Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Singapore Responds to Recession with a Massive Fiscal & Mild Monetary Stimulus

Singapore's Twin Surpluses: How Much Is Too Much?

A Real Electoral Contest in Singapore, Albeit Limited by Lack of Physical Campaigning

Manufacturing Surge Is Tempering the Magnitude of Recession

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

The Advance Estimate of 1Q 2020 real GDP suggested a contraction of -2.2% YoY, but this has since been revised up to -0.3% YoY, after manufacturing did much better in March 2020. Similarly, the 2Q 2020 advance estimate is based on data from April-May 2020, when the Circuit Breaker closed much of the economy down. With the reopening on 1st June 2020, that month's manufacturing AND (non-tourism-facing) Services performance are likely to be robust, and the 2Q 2020 real GDP numbers too will be revised up. As the massive fiscal stimulus (paid out to businesses and households) begins to be spent, Singapore will experience a powerful recovery in 2H 2020, generating 1.5% real GDP growth in 2020.  
Singapore's advance estimate of 2Q 2020 real GDP shows it contracting 12.6% YoY (and an eye-popping 41.2% QoQ at the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, saar). The similar advance estimate of 1Q 2020 real GDP showed it contracting 2.2% YoY (or -10.6% QoQsaar), but the 1Q 2020 figure has now been revised to -0.3% YoY (or -3.3% QoQsaar) -- a gentle rather than violent start to the recession!
The 2Q figure is similarly based on data for April-May 2020, the height of Singapore's Circuit Breaker lockdown of the economy (which ended on 1st June 2020). Just as the details of March manufacturing and NODX resulted in a substantial upward revision of 1Q 2020 real GDP, so will June's details cause an upward revision of 2Q 2020. We continue to estimate a contraction in real GDP of no more than 10% YoY in 2Q 2020.  
Going forward, the massive fiscal stimulus (13% of full-year GDP) will begin to be spent by households and businesses as the economy reopens in June, and especially 3Q 2020 and beyond. The fiscal stimulus includes Job Support to businesses (with the government paying 25% of all companies' wage bills for the whole of 2020, 50% for food &amp; beverage companies, and 75% for those in aviation and tourism-related sectors), the SERS program for the self-employed, and substantial direct income support. The massive stimulus will more-than-replace the lost GDP from the tourism-facing sectors, ensuring YoY growth in 3Q 2020 and a strong acceleration in 4Q 2020 to about 7% YoY growth. We continue to expect Singapore's real GDP to grow 1.5%  in 2020, aided by the massive fiscal stimulus.

The Advance Estimate of 1Q 2020 real GDP suggested a contraction of -2.2% YoY, but this has since been revised up to -0.3% YoY, after manufacturing did much better in March 2020. Similarly, the 2Q 2020 advance estimate is based on data from April-May 2020, when the Circuit Breaker closed much of the economy down. With the reopening on 1st June 2020, that month's manufacturing AND (non-tourism-facing) Services performance are likely to be robust, and the 2Q 2020 real GDP numbers too will be revised up. As the massive fiscal stimulus (paid out to businesses and households) begins to be spent, Singapore will experience a powerful recovery in 2H 2020, generating 1.5% real GDP growth in 2020.  
Singapore's advance estimate of 2Q 2020 real GDP shows it contracting 12.6% YoY (and an eye-popping 41.2% QoQ at the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate, saar). The similar advance estimate of 1Q 2020 real GDP showed it contracting 2.2% YoY (or -10.6% QoQsaar), but the 1Q 2020 figure has now been revised to -0.3% YoY (or -3.3% QoQsaar) -- a gentle rather than violent start to the recession!
The 2Q figure is similarly based on data for April-May 2020, the height of Singapore's Circuit Breaker lockdown of the economy (which ended on 1st June 2020). Just as the details of March manufacturing and NODX resulted in a substantial upward revision of 1Q 2020 real GDP, so will June's details cause an upward revision of 2Q 2020. We continue to estimate a contraction in real GDP of no more than 10% YoY in 2Q 2020.  
Going forward, the massive fiscal stimulus (13% of full-year GDP) will begin to be spent by households and businesses as the economy reopens in June, and especially 3Q 2020 and beyond. The fiscal stimulus includes Job Support to businesses (with the government paying 25% of all companies' wage bills for the whole of 2020, 50% for food &amp; beverage companies, and 75% for those in aviation and tourism-related sectors), the SERS program for the self-employed, and substantial direct income support. The massive stimulus will more-than-replace the lost GDP from the tourism-facing sectors, ensuring YoY growth in 3Q 2020 and a strong acceleration in 4Q 2020 to about 7% YoY growth. We continue to expect Singapore's real GDP to grow 1.5%  in 2020, aided by the massive fiscal stimulus. 

2Q 2020 Advance Estimate Will Be Revised Up, Just as 1Q Was; Recovery Ahead