Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223</li>
<li>Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery</li>
<li>Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T </li>
</ul>


KEX's EBIT margin fell to -38% in Q323, but showed Q/Q improvement vs Q223
Q/Q progress on margin most likely due to KEX initiatives, not market recovery
Ongoing weakness in Thai domestic express market marginally negative for J&amp;T 


Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds</li>
<li>Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear</li>
<li>The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process</li>
</ul>


Acquiring parent Alibaba's express investments could soak up much of CaiNiao's IPO proceeds
Such transfers would help Alibaba, but the potential benefit to CaiNiao is less clear
The transfers of these stakes could become an important aspect of CaiNiao's IPO process


CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins</li>
<li>The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3</li>
<li>SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag</li>
</ul>


Given declining prices and slowing volume growth, we anticipated lower Q3 express margins
The four China-listed express firms saw Op Inc margin fall from 5.3% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3
SF fared better than 'sort &amp; transport' names, but its freight forwarding segment still a drag


The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a>, a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cainiao-smart-logistics-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115312" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK), a global leader in e-commerce logistics, has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise at least US$1 billion at a US$15-20 billion valuation.
In Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn. 


Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:105041" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:115216" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  </li>
</ul>


J&amp;T priced its IPO at a fixed price of HK$12.00 per share to raise the gross proceeds of the offering of US$500 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case and J&amp;T Global Express IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO price.  


China

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

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STO Express (002468 CH)

Q323 Another Tough Quarter for Kerry Express Thailand (KEX) | Negative Read-Through for J&T Global

Q323 was another quarter of Y/Y declines in revenue and margins for KEX, though profitability actually improved versus Q2. The read-through for...

Tracking Traffic

CaiNiao Smart Logistics Pre-IPO Part 4 | Acquiring BABA's Express Stakes Could Soak Up IPO Proceeds

The transfer of Alibaba's logistics investments to CaiNiao could require billions of dollars of new funds in the short- to medium-term, potentially...

Tracking Traffic

The Four Listed Chinese Express Companies Suffered Significant Margin Erosion in Q323

A new price war among China's 'sort and transport' express companies drove down the group's core margins in Q3, and we expect the pain to continue...

Tracking Traffic

Cainiao Smart Logistics IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on declining global cross-border market share, China logistics decelerating growth, high related-party transactions, and FCF burn.

Arun George

J&T Global Express IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector continues to weaken. The de-rating of peers lowers our SoTP valuation to HK$10.01 per share, 16.5% below the IPO...

Arun George

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