Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.</li>
<li>That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.</li>
<li>They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.</li>
</ul>


The vast majority of under-educated Chinese in less-developed regions are largely irrelevant to the China consumer market as investors and analysts know it.
That is why that simple benchmarking with developed markets on per capita basis almost always results in forecasts that prove too optimistic in hindsight.
They risk being further left behind as technology advancements and economic transformation may block the path for their income growth and hence derail consumption upgrade.


What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dpc-dash-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36556:1" rel="noopener">DPC Dash (1405 HK)</a> raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 672 stores across 20 cities, as of Jun 2023.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 672 stores across 20 cities, as of Jun 2023.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


DPC Dash IPO - US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was massive in 1H23E.</li><li>After a disappointing 2Q23 plus worrying macro outlook, we downgrade the sector to MARKET-PERFORM as we see more downside in earnings.</li><li>However, as valuation turned more attractive, we can start to accumulate industry leaders. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was massive in 1H23E.After a disappointing 2Q23 plus worrying macro outlook, we downgrade the sector to MARKET-PERFORM as we see more downside in earnings.However, as valuation turned more attractive, we can start to accumulate industry leaders. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Catering Sector – Staying cautious after a disappointing 2Q23E

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bikaji-foods-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36502:1" rel="noopener">Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN)</a>, an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.</li>
<li>Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
Bikaji was the third largest ethnic snacks company in India and the second fastest growing company in the Indian organized snacks market in FY22, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1Q23 result was tremendous, and both sales recovery and margins are better than expected.</li><li>After one and a half year, YUMC recorded its first +ve SSSG, as turnaround is finally here, we upgrade it to BUY and raise TP to US$ 76.82, based on 35x FY23E P/E (up from 33x).</li><li>YUMC is still one of our sector top picks, as we think its margin and store expansion can continue to surprise the market.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1Q23 result was tremendous, and both sales recovery and margins are better than expected.After one and a half year, YUMC recorded its first +ve SSSG, as turnaround is finally here, we upgrade it to BUY and raise TP to US$ 76.82, based on 35x FY23E P/E (up from 33x).YUMC is still one of our sector top picks, as we think its margin and store expansion can continue to surprise the market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yum China (YUMC US) – Confidence increases after upbeat 1Q23 result

China

Yum China Holdings, Inc. operates chain restaurants. The Company offers pizza, entrees, pasta, rice dishes, appetizers, soups, vegetables, beverages, and desserts. Yum China Holding conducts its business worldwide.

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Yum China Holdings (YUMC US)

What Is Holding Back China Consumers’ Potential?

The majority of under-educated Chinese in lower-tier cities is irrelevant to China consumer market as we know it. Be cautious with simple...

Eric Chen

DPC Dash IPO - US$400m Lockup Expiry Should Provide a Liquidity Boost

DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m in its Hong Kong IPO in Mar 2023. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon, resulting in US$400m worth...

Sumeet Singh

China Catering Sector – Staying cautious after a disappointing 2Q23E

Numbers for catering sector did rebound strongly YoY, but since SSS/ table turnover recovery rate were not as good as expected, de-rating was...

CMB International

Bikaji Foods IPO Lock-Up - Small Expiry with a Chance to Lift the Overhang

Bikaji Foods (BIKAJI IN), an ethnic snacks company, raised approximately US$107m in its India IPO. The stock was listed on 16th Nov 2022, its six...

Sumeet Singh

Yum China (YUMC US) – Confidence increases after upbeat 1Q23 result

After one and a half year, YUMC recorded its first +ve SSSG, as turnaround is finally here, we upgrade it to BUY and raise TP to US$ 76.82, based...

CMB International

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