Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We had a channel check on property agencies in Beijing during the Labour Day holiday and found that 1) the number of visits increased but has been partly translated to increase in transactions.</li><li>2) Main reasons that kept potential buyers on the side-line are falling house price and bigger discount in new home project with higher proportion of completed house available.</li><li>High-frequency data showed that daily avg. new home transactions in 30 major cities during the Labour Day holiday of 2024 only recovered to 39% of 2023’s level, mainly dragged by Tier-3 cities. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We had a channel check on property agencies in Beijing during the Labour Day holiday and found that 1) the number of visits increased but has been partly translated to increase in transactions.2) Main reasons that kept potential buyers on the side-line are falling house price and bigger discount in new home project with higher proportion of completed house available.High-frequency data showed that daily avg. new home transactions in 30 major cities during the Labour Day holiday of 2024 only recovered to 39% of 2023’s level, mainly dragged by Tier-3 cities. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: Holiday sales update and takeaway from channel check in Beijing

<ul><li>Relaxation of demand-related policies continued with Beijing further optimizing mortgage loan requirement for divorced people and multiple cities removing the lower limit on mortgage rate for first-home buyers.</li><li>Around 35 cities joined the group of adopting “trade in old house for new” policies through 3 approaches (Figure 1).</li><li>These moves may not bring a surge in property sales but could prevent a sharp decline by marginally boosting demand in our view. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Relaxation of demand-related policies continued with Beijing further optimizing mortgage loan requirement for divorced people and multiple cities removing the lower limit on mortgage rate for first-home buyers.Around 35 cities joined the group of adopting “trade in old house for new” policies through 3 approaches (Figure 1).These moves may not bring a surge in property sales but could prevent a sharp decline by marginally boosting demand in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: +ve progress on policy implementation, no remarkable recovery on sales

<ul><li>The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy, which sparked another round of anticipation for more supporting policies among investors.</li><li>Share prices of quality names in the sector inched up 2-3% yesterday in response.</li><li>We think it is possible to see more relaxation in tier-1 cities while the effect on property sales could be limited as residents’ future income expectation has not yet recovered and developers are still deeply mired in debt crisis. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy, which sparked another round of anticipation for more supporting policies among investors.Share prices of quality names in the sector inched up 2-3% yesterday in response.We think it is possible to see more relaxation in tier-1 cities while the effect on property sales could be limited as residents’ future income expectation has not yet recovered and developers are still deeply mired in debt crisis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly highlight: Tier-1 cities showed WoW recovery, YoY decline remains deep

<ul><li>YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.</li><li>We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.</li><li>This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

YY’s Asia reported that 12 national banks are planning to provide RMB 80bn syndicate loan for Vanke to repay its future maturing debt, and several banks have confirmed this news.We think this confirms our previous statement that “regulators have reached a consensus on Vanke’s position as a systematically important developer”, showing a clear attitude to provide financial assistance to Vanke.This would bring more confidence to the market during the debt repayment peak.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Sales Show Recovery Sign, Banks May Help Semi-SOE

China

Yuexiu Services Group Limited provides property management services. The Company offers building maintenance, security management, and other services. Yuexiu Services Group is located in Hong Kong.

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Yuexiu Services (6626 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Property - Weekly highlight: Holiday sales update and takeaway from channel check in Beijing

We had a channel check on property agencies in Beijing during the Labour Day holiday and found that 1) the number of visits increased but has been...

CMB International

Property - Weekly highlight: +ve progress on policy implementation, no remarkable recovery on sales

These moves may not bring a surge in property sales but could prevent a sharp decline by marginally boosting demand in our view.

CMB International

Property - Weekly highlight: Tier-1 cities showed WoW recovery, YoY decline remains deep

The State Council’s meeting held last Friday reiterated the crucial role of real estate industry for stabilizing the macro economy

CMB International

Property - Sales Show Recovery Sign, Banks May Help Semi-SOE

Yesterday, the developers surged 8% due to the Vanke’s news mentioned above. We believe news related to developers debt repayment will continue to...

CMB International

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