External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest high frequency data continues to cheer up the market especially the new home sales which booked +9%/+35% WoW/MTD YoY growth and the YTD decline narrowed to -4% YoY.</li><li>Secondary home sales remained strong at 83% YoY for MTD in Mar.</li><li>Together with another RRR cut as we expected (report) and BEKE’s strong guidance (report), market confidence on sales sustainability was further strengthened.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The latest high frequency data continues to cheer up the market especially the new home sales which booked +9%/+35% WoW/MTD YoY growth and the YTD decline narrowed to -4% YoY.Secondary home sales remained strong at 83% YoY for MTD in Mar.Together with another RRR cut as we expected (report) and BEKE’s strong guidance (report), market confidence on sales sustainability was further strengthened.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales continued to cheer up the market

Equity Bottom-Up

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Its share price fell 35% (HSI -10%) since 1H22 results due to weak fundamental caused by pandemic (DPS -30% YoY) and US rate hike.</li><li>The pressure could sustain in ST on Guangzhou’s weak recovery and further rate increase.</li><li>LT opportunity could open up if it is expanding in a more market-oriented way.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Its share price fell 35% (HSI -10%) since 1H22 results due to weak fundamental caused by pandemic (DPS -30% YoY) and US rate hike.The pressure could sustain in ST on Guangzhou’s weak recovery and further rate increase.LT opportunity could open up if it is expanding in a more market-oriented way.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yue Xiu REITs (405 HK) – Market-Oriented Expansion Is the Key

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March review of the HSCI ended on 31 December. There are a lot of new listings that should be included in the index.</li>
<li>SenseTime is a high probability inclusion to the index, though it will only be added to Stock Connect in July once it completes 6 months and 20 trading days.</li>
<li>Xpeng and Li Auto will be added to Stock Connect in Feb/March if they pass the velocity test. We see Li Auto as failing the test, while Xpeng is close.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March review of the HSCI ended on 31 December. There are a lot of new listings that should be included in the index.
SenseTime is a high probability inclusion to the index, though it will only be added to Stock Connect in July once it completes 6 months and 20 trading days.
Xpeng and Li Auto will be added to Stock Connect in Feb/March if they pass the velocity test. We see Li Auto as failing the test, while Xpeng is close.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Plenty of New Listings Should Be Included

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust / Event-Driven

<p>On Sunday 24 October, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19699:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)</a> announced that they had agreed to buy Yuexiu Financial Tower (越秀金融大廈) by buying the equity interests in Guangzhou Construction &amp; Development Holdings from its parent. The asset is an International Grade A office building and one of the ten tallest skyscrapers in Guangzhou.  The Property has a total gross floor area of 210,283sq.m. as a 68-storey above-ground commercial building (4 floors retail, 64 floors offices) and a 4-storey basement with 827 underground Carpark Spaces. </p><p>The property is being purchased for nearly RMB 7.8bn, and would have represented 19% of pro-forma revenue in the 6 months to June 2021. It lowers the concentration of Guangzhou IFC in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yuexiu-real-estate-investment-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19699:1" rel="noopener">Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)</a> portfolio from 55% to 44% on a pro-forma basis, and enjoyed average occupancy of 92.5% year-to-date through end-September 2021. </p><p>The acquisition is expected to be DPU and DPU Yield accretive to Yuexiu REIT.</p><h3>The Rights Issue</h3><p>Financing will involve about HK$1bn of cash, a loan facility of RMB 3.828bn, and a Rights Issue of HK$3.919bn for 1,234,403,038 Rights Issue Units (37 for 100 shares) at HK$3.20/share.</p><p>There will be an EGM in early December to approve the Rights Issue. Yue Xiu has undertaken to exercise all the rights allocated to it, and has fully underwritten the Rights Offering to other unitholders and there will be no excess application arrangements. </p><p>This will make Yue Xiu the largest PRC property REIT in Hong Kong.</p><p>The shares opened down sharply yesterday and fell further, then they are down more today. If the shares close here (HK$3.33/unit as I write (but HK$3.28 at the close)) it would be the second-lowest close in more than 10 years. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/237/521/original/Screenshot+2021-10-26+at+1.26.58+PM.png?1635226426" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="237521"></figure></section><p>It stinks to have been an owner last Friday, but it sets up something interesting now.</p><p>More details below.</p>

On Sunday 24 October, Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK) announced that they had agreed to buy Yuexiu Financial Tower (越秀金融大廈) by buying the equity interests in Guangzhou Construction &amp; Development Holdings from its parent. The asset is an International Grade A office building and one of the ten tallest skyscrapers in Guangzhou.  The Property has a total gross floor area of 210,283sq.m. as a 68-storey above-ground commercial building (4 floors retail, 64 floors offices) and a 4-storey basement with 827 underground Carpark Spaces. The property is being purchased for nearly RMB 7.8bn, and would have represented 19% of pro-forma revenue in the 6 months to June 2021. It lowers the concentration of Guangzhou IFC in the Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK) portfolio from 55% to 44% on a pro-forma basis, and enjoyed average occupancy of 92.5% year-to-date through end-September 2021. The acquisition is expected to be DPU and DPU Yield accretive to Yuexiu REIT.The Rights IssueFinancing will involve about HK$1bn of cash, a loan facility of RMB 3.828bn, and a Rights Issue of HK$3.919bn for 1,234,403,038 Rights Issue Units (37 for 100 shares) at HK$3.20/share.There will be an EGM in early December to approve the Rights Issue. Yue Xiu has undertaken to exercise all the rights allocated to it, and has fully underwritten the Rights Offering to other unitholders and there will be no excess application arrangements. This will make Yue Xiu the largest PRC property REIT in Hong Kong.The shares opened down sharply yesterday and fell further, then they are down more today. If the shares close here (HK$3.33/unit as I write (but HK$3.28 at the close)) it would be the second-lowest close in more than 10 years. It stinks to have been an owner last Friday, but it sets up something interesting now.More details below.

Yuexiu REIT Rights Offering - A Small Discount Rights Offering Becomes Shadow Takeover

David Blennerhassett

<div>
<p>Back on the 10 March 2020, PRC commercial property-play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China Ltd (410 HK)</a> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0310/2020031000240.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its shares had been suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Shares gained 47.58% prior to the suspension.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Various media sources suggested Blackstone Group was seeking to take the company private at a rumoured price of $6/share, a ~100% premium to the undisturbed price of $2.98.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>SOHO subsequently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0311/2020031100644.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clarified</a> it had been in "<em>discussions with overseas financial investors to explore the possibility of a strategic partnership ... which may or may not lead to a general offer", </em>but stopped short of mentioning the name of the suitor(s).</p>
<p>Then nothing. After a handful of monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, stating there <em>were</em> no updates, SOHO <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/0813/2020081301248.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 13 August that the  "<em>Board wishes to update the shareholders and potential investors of the Company that in relation to the Potential Transaction referred to in the announcement of 11 March 2020, all previous discussions with various investors have now been terminated and have not at this time resulted in the terms for a Potential Transaction being agreed</em>."</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>SOHO <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0615/2021061500114.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> this morning its shares had been suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. And just to be consistent, shares gained 27% in the last two days of trading leading into the suspension.</p>
<p>SOHO remains 63.93% held by founder Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin.</p>
<p>Blackstone kicking tyres again?</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, there is more below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 10 March 2020, PRC commercial property-play Soho China Ltd (410 HK) announced its shares had been suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Shares gained 47.58% prior to the suspension.


Various media sources suggested Blackstone Group was seeking to take the company private at a rumoured price of $6/share, a ~100% premium to the undisturbed price of $2.98.


SOHO subsequently clarified it had been in "discussions with overseas financial investors to explore the possibility of a strategic partnership ... which may or may not lead to a general offer", but stopped short of mentioning the name of the suitor(s).
Then nothing. After a handful of monthly updates pursuant to the Takeovers Code, stating there were no updates, SOHO announced on the 13 August that the  "Board wishes to update the shareholders and potential investors of the Company that in relation to the Potential Transaction referred to in the announcement of 11 March 2020, all previous discussions with various investors have now been terminated and have not at this time resulted in the terms for a Potential Transaction being agreed."
The New News
SOHO announced this morning its shares had been suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. And just to be consistent, shares gained 27% in the last two days of trading leading into the suspension.
SOHO remains 63.93% held by founder Pan Shiyi and his wife Zhang Xin.
Blackstone kicking tyres again?


As always, there is more below the fold.


SOHO China (410 HK) Suspended Pursuant To The Takeovers Code - Again

Hong Kong

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust invests in a diverse portfolio of income producing properties which are used primarily for office, retail, and other commercial purposes in China.

Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

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Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust (405 HK)

China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly: Sales continued to cheer up the market

The latest high frequency data continues to cheer up the market especially the new home sales which booked +9%/+35% WoW/MTD YoY growth and the YTD...

CMB International

Yue Xiu REITs (405 HK) – Market-Oriented Expansion Is the Key

Its share price fell 35% (HSI -10%) since 1H22 results due to weak fundamental caused by pandemic (DPS -30% YoY) and US rate hike.

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Plenty of New Listings Should Be Included

There could be up to 34 adds and 22 deletes for the HSCI in March based on market cap, liquidity and prolonged suspensions. A lot of new listings,...

Brian Freitas

Yuexiu REIT Rights Offering - A Small Discount Rights Offering Becomes Shadow Takeover

This looks like an innocuous if somewhat obnoxious little Rights Issue. It is worse. With the sharp fall in price, it looks likely this could turn...

Travis Lundy

SOHO China (410 HK) Suspended Pursuant To The Takeovers Code - Again

With shares suspended, nothing to be done. Separately, Spring REIT is trading 40% below the 2018 Offer price of $.85/share.

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

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