IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a>’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.</li>
<li>The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.</li>
<li>J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. </li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)’s 180-day IPO lock-up period for 88% of outstanding shares expires on 24 April. The shares exiting the lock-up period are worth US$9.9 billion.
The likely sellers will be the Series pre-A1, pre-A2, A and B investors as are they are materially in the money at the last close price.
J&amp;T has returned to organic growth with a shift to profits and declining cash burn. While the last close is 17% below the IPO price, the shares are fairly valued. 


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment</li>
<li>March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth</li>
<li>We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint</li>
</ul>


ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment
March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao</li>
<li>The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability</li>
<li>BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!</li>
</ul>


A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao
The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability
BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!


Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

<ul>
<li>On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'</li>
</ul>


On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise
We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise
We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'


J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

<ul>
<li>A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea</li>
<li>Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn</li>
<li>US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?</li>
</ul>


A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea
Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn
US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?


Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): The US$9.9 Billion Lock up Expiry

The shares deposited on CCASS increased significantly from 4.26% of outstanding shares on 11 April to 67.72% on 20 April. The increase of 5,592.8...

Arun George

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

In this insight we discuss the potential impact of Alibaba's decision not to list CaiNiao's shares, and offer a brief comment on the implied...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

We were pleasantly surprised to see J&T disclose Q124 operating stats so promptly, but we still wonder why the company hasn't explained its abrupt...

Tracking Traffic

Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

A defendant in a China-US postage fraud case pled guilty, accepted US$150+ mn in asset forfeitures & restitution, and will help authorities expand...

Tracking Traffic

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