Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s June quarter results, the numbers from logistics arm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK)</a> stood out: revenue up 34% Y/Y, &amp; EBITA turned to +ive</li>
<li>In this insight we attempt to place Cainiao's stellar results into context: it grew far faster than parent Alibaba's revenue, but also faster than Chinese e-comm and Chinese express</li>
<li>As Cainiao preps for its IPO, its June results should boost investors' confidence. The numbers also hint at what is driving Cainiao's recent performance, and which indicators to watch</li>
</ul>


Within Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s June quarter results, the numbers from logistics arm Cainiao Smart Logistics (1437124D HK) stood out: revenue up 34% Y/Y, &amp; EBITA turned to +ive
In this insight we attempt to place Cainiao's stellar results into context: it grew far faster than parent Alibaba's revenue, but also faster than Chinese e-comm and Chinese express
As Cainiao preps for its IPO, its June results should boost investors' confidence. The numbers also hint at what is driving Cainiao's recent performance, and which indicators to watch


With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cainiao-smart-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36859:1" rel="noopener">Cainiao Smart Logistics</a> ,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



Cainiao Smart Logistics ,  Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.
Cainiao is the largest provider of cross-border e-commerce logistics services globally and a leader in China logistics services, according to CIC.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at Cainiao.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In our previous note, we highlighted which division could list. In this note, we will look at Cainiao.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more</li>
<li>Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week</li>
<li>We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term</li>
</ul>


Express industry pricing fell by -5% in August, but some companies' ASPs fell by far more
Reportedly, we could see movement on planned J&amp;T Express and CaiNiao IPOs this week
We think SF Holding should outperform its "plain vanilla" express peers in medium-term


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a>'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. </li>
<li>Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.</li>
<li>While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)'s impressive 1H23 and 2Q23 results are only reflections of its competitive strengths. We believe the company is poised to generate even better profitability. 
Its market share expansion, excellent cost management, positive volume growth, new business initiatives and solid net cash position are all strengths that drive long-term outlook.
While trading on premium vs. peers, ZTO's PER valuations are well justified by its leadership position, healthy financial position, and high EPS CAGR for FY23-FY25F.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Cainiao Smart Logistics , Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Alibaba has confirmed that Cainiao will the first mini-Baba to list on its own. Baba in its filing stated that it obtained HKEX approval for the...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

With A Long-Anticipated IPO on the Horizon, Alibaba's Cainiao Posts Stellar June Quarter Results

In response to the news CaiNiao Smart Logistics has applied to list its shares in Hong Kong, we're re-upping this insight

Tracking Traffic

Cainiao Pre-IPO - The Postivies - Evolving into a Global Player, Decent Revenue Growth

Cainiao Smart Logistics , Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)’s logistics linked arm, is planning to raise at least US$1bn in its Hong Kong IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Alibaba Potential IPOs - Part 2 - An Early Look at Cainiao, US$10bn+

Alibaba has confirmed that Cainiao will the first mini-Baba to list on its own. Baba in its filing stated that it obtained HKEX approval for the...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | August ASPs Plunge | Long SF / Short 'Ground'? | (September 2023)

Pricing continued to weaken for domestic "ground" parcels in August, adding to pressure on margins in Q3. However, we believe SF Holding is mostly...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position

Market share expansion, cost management, volume growth, new initiatives, and solid net cash contribute to ZTO's outlook. Its leadership position...

Osbert Tang, CFA

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Rock Solid Competitive Position