Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 28th Mar 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.</li>
<li>Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about some of the company’s investments and how the overall Holdco would look post restructuring.</li>
</ul>


On 28th Mar 2023, Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) announced that it would adopt a new organizational and governance structure, splitting into six major business groups and other investments.
Alibaba also stated that each of the business groups would be set up as an independent entity with its own board and the groups will eventually seek to list.
In this note, we will talk about some of the company’s investments and how the overall Holdco would look post restructuring.


Alibaba Potential IPOs - The Final Part - Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021</li>
<li>Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers</li>
<li>Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way</li>
</ul>


Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021
Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers
Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way


Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth</li>
<li>Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus</li>
<li>EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) parcel volume increased by 20.5% Y/Y in Q1, better than market growth
Unit prices fell by 3.7%, slightly worse than peers in Q1 2023, and Revenue missed consensus
EPS beat expectations on lower unit costs, and management raised full-year volume target


ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

<ul>
<li>March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022</li>
<li>Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022</li>
<li>Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet</li>
</ul>


March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022
Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022
Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

China

YTO Express Group Co., Ltd. provides global express services. The Company also provides general cargo warehousing, domestic air transport agency, car rental, supply chain management, and other related services throughout China..

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YTO Express (600233 CH)

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

Alibaba Potential IPOs - The Final Part - Quick Look at Investees and Eventual Holdco

Continuining with our series of notes on Alibaba's planned six way reorganisation, in this note, we talk about its investments and eventual holdco.

Sumeet Singh

Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

Margins in China's express sector have been falling for years. However, there are few signs of consolidation: companies remain profitable, and...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q1 Results Surprise: Despite Lower Pricing, Margins Up Y/Y | Mgmt Raises Volume Guidance

ZTO's Q1 results showed strong volume growth, but also weaker unit pricing and a lack of control over SG&A expenses. We retain our negative view on...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

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