Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.</li>
<li>Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. </li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li><em><strong>We have significantly raised the NAV of Young Poong to 965,193 won (up 105% than previously). Our current NAV estimate of the company is 150% higher than current price.</strong></em></li>
<li>Some traders have been positioning for Young Poong to be deleted from the KOSPI200 in the next round of rebalancing. Young Poong is not likely to be deleted from KOSPI200.</li>
<li>We also provide three potential scenarios of the Choi family's strategy to fight back to gain control of Korea Zinc.</li>
</ul>


We have significantly raised the NAV of Young Poong to 965,193 won (up 105% than previously). Our current NAV estimate of the company is 150% higher than current price.
Some traders have been positioning for Young Poong to be deleted from the KOSPI200 in the next round of rebalancing. Young Poong is not likely to be deleted from KOSPI200.
We also provide three potential scenarios of the Choi family's strategy to fight back to gain control of Korea Zinc.


NAV Analysis of Young Poong and Three Potential Scenarios of Choi Family's Strategy to Fight Back

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.</li>
<li>The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.</li>
<li>The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.</li>
</ul>


There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> December rebalance complete, there should be 4 adds and 5 deletes at the review.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.3-23 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-16 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes early in the review period but there has been little to see over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) December rebalance complete, there should be 4 adds and 5 deletes at the review.
The impact on the potential inclusions ranges from 2.3-23 days of ADV while the impact on the potential deletions varies from 5-16 days of ADV.
The forecast adds outperformed the forecast deletes early in the review period but there has been little to see over the last few months.


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of October 2024, 10 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$9bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~26%. The average premium YTD is ~42%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

South Korea

Young Poong Corporation produces and markets non-ferrous metals, such as zinc ingots, sulfate, and cadmium.  The Company also generates income from leasing buildings.

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Young Poong (000670 KS)

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in...

Douglas Kim

NAV Analysis of Young Poong and Three Potential Scenarios of Choi Family's Strategy to Fight Back

We have significantly raised the NAV of Young Poong to 965,193 won (up 105% than previously). Our current NAV estimate of the company is 150%...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

There are 4 adds and 5 deletes for the KOSPI200 in December. 2 deletes are small surprises. There is a lot to trade in terms of ADV for some stocks...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes as Review Period Ends

Review period complete. We forecast 4 adds, 5 deletes with some close names. Passive trading impact is 2.3-16x ADV. Adds outperformed deletes early...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2024: Arcadium, T Gaia, Elematec, NEC Network, MPHB, Sigma Health, Fuji Soft

For the month of Oct, 10 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$9bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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