Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;</li>
<li>Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;</li>
<li>China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. </li>
</ul>


China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;
Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;
China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.</li>
<li>The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bestechnic-shanghai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33459:1" rel="noopener">Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH)</a> is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 10 adds/ 29 deletes for the China global index in February. The actual number of changes will be smaller depending on the review date chosen.
The flow on the forecast adds varies from US$17.5m-US$175m (0.05x-15x ADV) while the flow on the forecast deletes varies from US$14.4m-US$100.4m (0.25x-22.75x ADV).

Bestechnic Shanghai (688608 CH) is a potential inclusion to multiple indices in June and there will be much larger passive flows to the stock then.


China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxis</li><li>Xiaohongshu /: TikTok refugees send Xiaohongshu to top of U.S. app store charts</li><li>Smartphones /Chart of the Day: Huawei’s smartphone comeback in China</li></ul>

Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxisXiaohongshu /: TikTok refugees send Xiaohongshu to top of U.S. app store chartsSmartphones /Chart of the Day: Huawei’s smartphone comeback in China

CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis 

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36659:1" rel="noopener">MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)</a> had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.
</li>
</ul>


During Hong Kong's market correction during November, we noticed that the Put/Call spread stayed below 1 and the skew moved to its lowest level in 3 years both bullish signals.

Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) share price had a golden cross breakout on December 3, as the casual dining sector in China shows growth going into next year.


MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK) had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern relative to MXEF.  The gap up in the share price and momentum signals confirms the uptrend.



Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

<ul>
<li>LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/TSLA US/ZK US:Electric vehicles delivered in the 48th week of 2024: LI and AITO stagnated, new new forces surged,while BYD and Tesla maintained moderate rise.(///////////)</li>
<li>MNSO US /601933 CH: A brief comment on the recent stock rally(///)</li>
<li>981HK/ACMR US/1347 HK: Impacts of US semiconductor export controls. (-/-/+)</li>
</ul>


LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211 HK/TSLA US/ZK US:Electric vehicles delivered in the 48th week of 2024: LI and AITO stagnated, new new forces surged,while BYD and Tesla maintained moderate rise.(///////////)
MNSO US /601933 CH: A brief comment on the recent stock rally(///)
981HK/ACMR US/1347 HK: Impacts of US semiconductor export controls. (-/-/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211HK/TSLA US/ZK US/MNSO/601933CH/LKNCY/981HK/ACMR/1347HK

China

Yonghui Superstores Company Limited operates supermarket franchises . The Company mainly operates hypermarkets, marketplace and supermarkets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis

Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxis Green lights are turning on for China’s driverless taxi companies. On Dec. 30,...

Caixin Global

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211HK/TSLA US/ZK US/MNSO/601933CH/LKNCY/981HK/ACMR/1347HK

Electric vehicle deliveries in the 48th week of 2024 show stagnation for some, surge for others. Stock rally commentary and impacts of US...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

​China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China/HK: Passive Activity Expected Later This Month

There could be up to 10 adds/29 deletes for China in Feb. Flow varies from US$14m-175m and impact from 0.05x-22.75x ADV. Bestechnic Shanghai is a...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: China Clears More Obstacles for Robotaxis

Robotaxis / In Depth: China clears more obstacles for robotaxis Green lights are turning on for China’s driverless taxi companies. On Dec. 30,...

Caixin Global

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (DECEMBER 5)

Hong Kong show decreased volatility and increased mainland buying continue since the US election. YUM China share price broke out (golden...

David Mudd

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/1211HK/TSLA US/ZK US/MNSO/601933CH/LKNCY/981HK/ACMR/1347HK

​Electric vehicle deliveries in the 48th week of 2024 show stagnation for some, surge for others. Stock rally commentary and impacts of US...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Electric vehicle deliveries in the 48th week of 2024 show stagnation for some, surge for others. Stock rally commentary and impacts of US...