Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.3% and down WoW; Weak Payrolls numbers lead to fall in US 2Yr to 4.95%, USD weakness;  This week - packed schedule with CPI; Watch Bank earnings</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2, on weaker US payrolls;   JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding Equity Base (=more buybacks?); Kishida to reshuffle cabinet</li>
<li>NUGGET. Heat Pumps - A Big Deal for Daikin(6367)/Melco(6503).  A large addressable, and growing market, and great for the environment. Yes, you should get excited!</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.3% and down WoW; Weak Payrolls numbers lead to fall in US 2Yr to 4.95%, USD weakness;  This week - packed schedule with CPI; Watch Bank earnings
JAPAN. NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2, on weaker US payrolls;   JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding Equity Base (=more buybacks?); Kishida to reshuffle cabinet
NUGGET. Heat Pumps - A Big Deal for Daikin(6367)/Melco(6503).  A large addressable, and growing market, and great for the environment. Yes, you should get excited!


Ohayo Japan | Weak Payrolls=Lower Rates; Weaker USD; NUGGET:Heat Pumps-The Future of Cooling/Heating

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Good Friday holidays. US Economy proving to be pretty resilient. Non-farm payrolls showed hiring continued to be strong in March. NFP was 236k vs Cons 230k. Telsa cuts prices(again)</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash as US Equity(Cash) markets closed. USDJPY 132.2. Likely see some beta led reversals of losses seen in the latter half of last week.</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Kuroda bids Farewell after 10 years as BOJ Governor. He created a new playbook on monetary policy that will be studied for years. Net-net, positive outcome.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Good Friday holidays. US Economy proving to be pretty resilient. Non-farm payrolls showed hiring continued to be strong in March. NFP was 236k vs Cons 230k. Telsa cuts prices(again)
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.5% vs Cash as US Equity(Cash) markets closed. USDJPY 132.2. Likely see some beta led reversals of losses seen in the latter half of last week.
NUGGET.  Kuroda bids Farewell after 10 years as BOJ Governor. He created a new playbook on monetary policy that will be studied for years. Net-net, positive outcome.


Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore - Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Japan

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

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Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)

Ohayo Japan | Weak Payrolls=Lower Rates; Weaker USD; NUGGET:Heat Pumps-The Future of Cooling/Heating

Weaker Payrolls drive rates down - a bit; Weaker USD; NKY Futs flat vs Cash; USDJPY 142.2; JP companies struggle to lift ROE due to expanding...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

Good Morning Japan |Jobs Galore - Strong NFP; Watch for the Fed Hawks; NUGGET: Kuroda Exits..a Hero?

SDJPY 132.2, weaker post US Non Farm Payrolls. We are likely to see some beta-led reversals of losses observed in the latter half of last week....

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

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