Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>C3Q24 results from LEAP Motors seems to indicate the profit margins of low-priced EV can reach high single digits.</li>
<li>We thus revised up XPEV's 2024-25 top line by 8% and 28% on successful launch of P7+, 2024-25 gross margins by 0.6ppt and 1.7ppt</li>
<li>Despite these improvements, we opt to maintain the rating of SELL and TP of US$5 unchanged as XPEV's path to profitability is still unclear.</li>
</ul>


C3Q24 results from LEAP Motors seems to indicate the profit margins of low-priced EV can reach high single digits.
We thus revised up XPEV's 2024-25 top line by 8% and 28% on successful launch of P7+, 2024-25 gross margins by 0.6ppt and 1.7ppt
Despite these improvements, we opt to maintain the rating of SELL and TP of US$5 unchanged as XPEV's path to profitability is still unclear.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

<ul>
<li>XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. </li>
<li>We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;</li>
<li>We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.</li>
</ul>


XPeng (XPEV) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating loss and GAAP net income in line, 5.4% worse and 7.5% better than our estimate. 
We raised our MONA forecast by 13% but still significantly below XPEV’s guidance. We believe management guidance is overly optimistic;
We maintain a SELL rating on the stock and TP unchanged.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)</li>
<li>XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)</li>
<li>LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK:In the 46th week of 2024, market demand is booming and new brands gain market share.(///////////////)
XPEV US: Xpeng's vehicle revenue and gross profit margin exceeded expectations in the third quarter, but service revenue was lower than expected, resulting in lower-than-expected profits.(/)
LKNCY US: Luckin Signs Memorandum for Brazilian Coffee Bean Purchases.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.</li>
<li>KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.</li>
<li>Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.</li>
</ul>


In 1Q24, Revenues of Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY.
KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the weak property market.
Bilibili’s value added services revenue grew by 17% YoY and advertising revenue grew by 31% YoY.


China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

In 1Q24, Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY. KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the...

Ming Lu

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$5) Company Update]: Material and Component Pricing Drove Cost Down

​LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, SELL, TP US$2) Earnings Review]: Delivery Goal for MONA M03 Is Unrealistic

​XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/TSLA US/1810 HK/NIO US/LI US/XPEV US/ZK US/9863 HK/LKNCY US

​Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Consumption Weekly (27 May 2024): Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, Gaotu, KE, Bilibili, and Weibo

In 1Q24, Xpeng, Tongcheng, Kanzhun, and Gaotu grew by 62% YoY, 50%, YoY, 43% YoY and 34% YoY. KE’s revenue decreased by 20% YoY in 1Q24 due to the...

Ming Lu

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

LEAP Motors' C3Q24 results show potential for high profit margins on low-priced EVs, prompting a slight increase in XPEV's revenue and gross...

XPeng reported mixed financial results for the second quarter, with revenue slightly below expectations and net income exceeding estimates. We...

Market demand is booming in 46th week of 2024, new brands gaining share; XPEV's Q3 revenue exceeds expectations but service revenue disappoints;...