China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Users are enthusiastic about the return of 5G Huawei smartphones, and thus we expect sales volume of Huawei devices to improve. </li>
<li>If the combined share of Huawei+ Honor can reach 30/32% we estimate Xiaomi’s current 12.5% share of the China smartphone market could decline 0.8/1.3ppts, respectively.</li>
<li>We maintain Xiaomi’s SELL and HK$ 8.2 TP, implying 26x FY23 PE. The increase in CY23 EPS reflects lowered OPEX, improved gross margin due to the impact of IC oversupply.</li>
</ul>


Users are enthusiastic about the return of 5G Huawei smartphones, and thus we expect sales volume of Huawei devices to improve. 
If the combined share of Huawei+ Honor can reach 30/32% we estimate Xiaomi’s current 12.5% share of the China smartphone market could decline 0.8/1.3ppts, respectively.
We maintain Xiaomi’s SELL and HK$ 8.2 TP, implying 26x FY23 PE. The increase in CY23 EPS reflects lowered OPEX, improved gross margin due to the impact of IC oversupply.


[Xiaomi(1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2)  Update]: Huawei’s Impact on Xiaomi Will Be Meaningful in 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Xiaomi’s 2Q23 adj. net income of RMB 5.14bn (+147% YoY) beat our/market estimates, mainly thanks to record-high GPM in smartphone/AIoT segments, healthy inventory levels and operating efficiency improvements.</li><li>2Q23 adj. net income RMB 5.14bn was 29%/26% above our estimate/consensus, while revenue of RMB 67.4bn (-4% YoY) was largely in-line.</li><li>Looking into 2H23E, we maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s earnings recovery driven by smartphone premiumization strategy, easing component costs, efficiency enhancement and new model launches. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi’s 2Q23 adj. net income of RMB 5.14bn (+147% YoY) beat our/market estimates, mainly thanks to record-high GPM in smartphone/AIoT segments, healthy inventory levels and operating efficiency improvements.2Q23 adj. net income RMB 5.14bn was 29%/26% above our estimate/consensus, while revenue of RMB 67.4bn (-4% YoY) was largely in-line.Looking into 2H23E, we maintain our positive view on Xiaomi’s earnings recovery driven by smartphone premiumization strategy, easing component costs, efficiency enhancement and new model launches. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q23 Beat on Record-High Margin; Reiterate BUY

<ul><li>Xiaomi hosted its Chairman’s annual speech yesterday and released a series of highly anticipated products including MIX Fold 3, Redmi K60 Ultra, Pad 6 Max, smart band 8 Pro and CyberDog 2.</li><li>Mr. Lei also disclosed the progress in Xiaomi’s large model on smartphones and smart AI assistant.</li><li>We believe most spec upgrades in MIX Fold 3 is in-line with expectations, and no price cut from prior version is not surprising considering high BOM costs and peers’ similar pricing strategy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi hosted its Chairman’s annual speech yesterday and released a series of highly anticipated products including MIX Fold 3, Redmi K60 Ultra, Pad 6 Max, smart band 8 Pro and CyberDog 2.Mr. Lei also disclosed the progress in Xiaomi’s large model on smartphones and smart AI assistant.We believe most spec upgrades in MIX Fold 3 is in-line with expectations, and no price cut from prior version is not surprising considering high BOM costs and peers’ similar pricing strategy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – MIX Fold 3/Redmi K60 Ultra/Pad 6 Max/CyberDog 2 and More

<ul><li>Xiaomi will report 2Q23 results in late August. We estimate 2Q revenue will decline 6% YoY and adj. net profit will climb 92% YoY, mainly driven by improved GPM on lower BOM cost, better product mix and effective cost control.</li><li>Looking ahead, we believe earnings recovery will continue into 2H23E and smartphone business will be boosted by new model launches and channel restocking.</li><li>Overall, we maintain our view in 1Q23 that the worst is over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi will report 2Q23 results in late August. We estimate 2Q revenue will decline 6% YoY and adj. net profit will climb 92% YoY, mainly driven by improved GPM on lower BOM cost, better product mix and effective cost control.Looking ahead, we believe earnings recovery will continue into 2H23E and smartphone business will be boosted by new model launches and channel restocking.Overall, we maintain our view in 1Q23 that the worst is over for Xiaomi’s earnings decline. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q23E Preview: Earnings Recovery to Accelerate

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Nonferrous Mining Corp / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. </li>
<li>Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.</li>
<li>This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.</li>
</ul>


A shares were down on the week, not maintaining the month-end bounce after the long weekend. H-shares were mixed. HSCEI was slightly up. 
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK23bn. SOUTHBOUND ended its consecutive post-CNY daily net buy streak on 25 March, then started a new one. No net sell days since.
This week saw a LOT of news. State Council Nine Points. CSRC draft regs and legislative work plan. Ratings agency action. Lots of movement. None of it hugely positive.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)

[Xiaomi(1810 HK, SELL, TP HK$8.2) Update]: Huawei’s Impact on Xiaomi Will Be Meaningful in 2024

If the combined share of Huawei+ Honor can reach 30/32% we estimate Xiaomi’s current 12.5% share of the China smartphone market could decline 0.8...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q23 Beat on Record-High Margin; Reiterate BUY

2Q23 adj. net income RMB 5.14bn was 29%/26% above our estimate/consensus, while revenue of RMB 67.4bn (-4% YoY) was largely in-line.

CMB International

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – MIX Fold 3/Redmi K60 Ultra/Pad 6 Max/CyberDog 2 and More

Xiaomi hosted its Chairman’s annual speech yesterday and released a series of highly anticipated products including MIX Fold 3, Redmi K60 Ultra,...

CMB International

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q23E Preview: Earnings Recovery to Accelerate

Looking ahead, we believe earnings recovery will continue into 2H23E and smartphone business will be boosted by new model launches and channel...

CMB International

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Apr 2024); Strong Net Buying. New State Council and CSRC Plans

Strong SOUTHBOUND Connect flows continue. Only one net sell day since the end of Chinese New Year. H-shares were flat to up while A-shares were...

Travis Lundy

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