External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Woolworths (WOW) was established in 1924 in Sydney Australia and today through its 1,693 points of presence in Australia and NZ, is a leading supplier of food and everyday needs with complementary investments in Foodservice and Digital marketing.</li><li>Since FY20 WOW has generated CAGR earnings growth of +7.9% p.a. while paying out 80% of cumulative profits in ordinary dividends lifting to 87% with inclusion of special (vs. a target of 70-75%).</li><li>Looking forward we anticipate FY25e to be a year of consolidation, with headwinds in discretionary categories (Big W and B2B Australia) mitigated by a continued shift in Australian food consumption to in-home channels. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Woolworths (WOW) was established in 1924 in Sydney Australia and today through its 1,693 points of presence in Australia and NZ, is a leading supplier of food and everyday needs with complementary investments in Foodservice and Digital marketing.Since FY20 WOW has generated CAGR earnings growth of +7.9% p.a. while paying out 80% of cumulative profits in ordinary dividends lifting to 87% with inclusion of special (vs. a target of 70-75%).Looking forward we anticipate FY25e to be a year of consolidation, with headwinds in discretionary categories (Big W and B2B Australia) mitigated by a continued shift in Australian food consumption to in-home channels. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Woolworths Group (WOW): A Year of Consolidation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a> in December.</li>
<li>The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telix-pharmaceuticals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26052:1" rel="noopener">Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU)</a> this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.</li>
</ul>



Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is the sole (and somewhat surprising) inclusion for the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) in December.
The one inclusion, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.5% leading to a round-trip trade of A$290m.
Shorts have increased in Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) this year but there has been some covering in the stock recently.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 1st): Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>This week the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.</li>
<li>In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.</li>
<li>According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.</li>
</ul>


This week the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX entered WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT status intra-week, peaking at 8384.50, then pulling back to 8283.20 at Close.
In this insight we will examine resistance levels the index will have a hard time to clear, without pulling back first at least 1 week.
According to our quantitative models, a pullback is highly likely to happen this week, or the next.


EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 11th December 2023, pharmacy distributor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a> announced a "transformational merger" - in effect a reverse takeover - with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG).</li>
<li>In <a href="https://skr.ma/qWWUZ," target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Chemist Warehouse's Reverse Takeover</a> I flagged pushback from ACCC; but on balance thought the merger should still get up.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> struck a more tentative tone in <a href="https://skr.ma/Q9Kv1," target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare: ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe... </a>Rightfully so it seems. The ACCC has now raised competition concerns. </li>
</ul>


Back on the 11th December 2023, pharmacy distributor Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) announced a "transformational merger" - in effect a reverse takeover - with mega chain Chemist Warehouse (CWG).
In Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Chemist Warehouse's Reverse Takeover I flagged pushback from ACCC; but on balance thought the merger should still get up.

Travis Lundy struck a more tentative tone in Sigma Healthcare: ASX200 Inclusion Now, MUCH More Squeezy Fun Later. Maybe... Rightfully so it seems. The ACCC has now raised competition concerns. 


Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

Australia

Woolworths Limited operates supermarkets, specialty and discount department stores, liquor and electronics stores throughout Australia.  Woolworths also manufactures processed foods, exports and wholesales food and offers petrol retailing.  The Company also operates hotels which includes pubs, food, accommodation, and gaming operations.

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Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU)

Woolworths Group (WOW): A Year of Consolidation

Since FY20 WOW has generated CAGR earnings growth of +7.9% p.a. while paying out 80% of cumulative profits in ordinary dividends lifting to 87%...

Bell Potter

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharma is a surprise inclusion in December. The add, float and capping changes lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 5.5% and to a round...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 1st): Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is up 14.6% as I type after news emerged it is offering franchisees who joined its network before 1 Jan 2024 the ability...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

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Woolworths Group (WOW): A Year of Consolidation

Since FY20 WOW has generated CAGR earnings growth of +7.9% p.a. while paying out 80% of cumulative profits in ordinary dividends lifting to 87%...

Bell Potter

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add & Capping Leads to A$290m Trade

Telix Pharma is a surprise inclusion in December. The add, float and capping changes lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 5.5% and to a round...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 1st): Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Aristocrat Leisure, Woolworths, Brambles, Xero.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

EQD | Upcoming ASX200 Pullback in 1-2 Weeks

​The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....

Nico Rosti

Sigma/Chemist Warehouse Merger: ACCC Has (Many) Issues

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is up 14.6% as I type after news emerged it is offering franchisees who joined its network before 1 Jan 2024 the ability...

David Blennerhassett

The ASX 200 INDEX has entered WEEKLY-overbought status, it is going to pull back in the next 1-2 weeks, but the overall trend appears healthy....