Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC Extends Global Foundry Dominance Amid 33% Sales Surge – A Buy on Weakness Despite Market Concerns</li>
<li>Apple 'Glowtime' AI Announcements: Mixed Analyst and Media Reactions May Overlook Key Advantage — Apple Is Best Positioned to Seamlessly Integrate AI Into Your Smartphone Experience</li>
<li>Taiwan Market Gainers &amp; Losers: Consumer Electronics &amp; Memory Names Some of the Hardest Hit</li>
</ul>


TSMC Extends Global Foundry Dominance Amid 33% Sales Surge – A Buy on Weakness Despite Market Concerns
Apple 'Glowtime' AI Announcements: Mixed Analyst and Media Reactions May Overlook Key Advantage — Apple Is Best Positioned to Seamlessly Integrate AI Into Your Smartphone Experience
Taiwan Market Gainers &amp; Losers: Consumer Electronics &amp; Memory Names Some of the Hardest Hit


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Becoming More Dominant; Apple's AI Opportunity; Taiwan Market Hammered

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DRAM revenues amounted to $23.3 billion in Q224, representing increases of 28.3% QoQ and 110.5% YoY.</li>
<li>In the case of NAND, Q224 revenues amounted to $16.5 billion, representing increases of 17% QoQ and 83% YoY.</li>
<li>Unprecedented demand for HBM &amp; DDR5, robustly increasing content per box for both PC &amp; Smartphone, looming capacity constraints, more/better LTA coverage are all mounting tailwinds for the memory segment </li>
</ul>


DRAM revenues amounted to $23.3 billion in Q224, representing increases of 28.3% QoQ and 110.5% YoY.
In the case of NAND, Q224 revenues amounted to $16.5 billion, representing increases of 17% QoQ and 83% YoY.
Unprecedented demand for HBM &amp; DDR5, robustly increasing content per box for both PC &amp; Smartphone, looming capacity constraints, more/better LTA coverage are all mounting tailwinds for the memory segment 


Q224 DRAM, NAND Revenues Grow For The Fifth Quarter In a Row

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>'s market cap. Still unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) is down 19% in the past month. But still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s market cap. Still unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex AND the Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) / KDDI Corp (9433 JP) Holdco, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation (sub/parent) &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

<ul>
<li>Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 </li>
<li>Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages</li>
<li>If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating</li>
</ul>


Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 
Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating


Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.</li>
<li>Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.</li>
<li>Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.
Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.
Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.


TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Taiwan

Winbond Electronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells integrated circuits (IC) and related products.  The Company sells its products in Taiwan, the United States, and Hong Kong.

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Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Becoming More Dominant; Apple's AI Opportunity; Taiwan Market Hammered

TSMC extending its lead in global foundry with Intel and Samsung needing help. Apple best positioned deliver the AI phone 'dream'. Taiwan market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Q224 DRAM, NAND Revenues Grow For The Fifth Quarter In a Row

Q224 DRAM $23.3 billion in Q224, +28.3% QoQ & +110.5% YoY. Q224 NAND $16.5 billion, +17% QoQ & +83% YoY. Multiple mounting tailwinds bode well for...

William Keating

StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Management sees 1Q24 as the bottom for memory and display markets, with clients increasing utilization. Expectation for stronger large display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Becoming More Dominant; Apple's AI Opportunity; Taiwan Market Hammered

​TSMC extending its lead in global foundry with Intel and Samsung needing help. Apple best positioned deliver the AI phone 'dream'. Taiwan market...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Q224 DRAM, NAND Revenues Grow For The Fifth Quarter In a Row

Q224 DRAM $23.3 billion in Q224, +28.3% QoQ & +110.5% YoY. Q224 NAND $16.5 billion, +17% QoQ & +83% YoY. Multiple mounting tailwinds bode well for...

William Keating

StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over - More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

Barito Renewables is down 19% in the past month. Yet still accounts for ~730% of parent Barito Pacific's market cap. Still unsustainable. Plus...

David Blennerhassett

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Management sees 1Q24 as the bottom for memory and display markets, with clients increasing utilization. Expectation for stronger large display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC extending its lead in global foundry with Intel and Samsung needing help. Apple best positioned deliver the AI phone 'dream'. Taiwan market...