IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s cash and scrip offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. </li>
<li>Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. </li>
<li>Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s cash and scrip offer for Pendal Group (PDL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. 
Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. 
Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.


Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p><p>The review period for the rebalance ends on 20 August, so there are only 3 days to go in the review period with 124 days completed.</p><p>For the ASX100, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> as a potential deletion following the reduction in its free float following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s tender offer. This is the possibility of another change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beach-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:795:1" rel="noopener">Beach Energy (BPT AU)</a> in the index.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a> as potential inclusions, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a> are potential deletions.</p><p>For the ASX300, potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imugene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20276:1" rel="noopener">Imugene Ltd (IMU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betmakers-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25489:1" rel="noopener">BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novonix-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29093:1" rel="noopener">Novonix Ltd (NVX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dubber-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15396:1" rel="noopener">Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/strike-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12473:1" rel="noopener">Strike Energy (STX AU)</a>, while potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bubs-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6296:1" rel="noopener">Bubs Australia (BUB AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/integrated-research-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6744:1" rel="noopener">Integrated Research (IRI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maca-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11390:1" rel="noopener">Maca Ltd (MLD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-developments-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18644:1" rel="noopener">Medical Developments International (MVP AU)</a>.</p><p>The impact is quite large on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> expected changes while there could be a large impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steadfast-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8181:1" rel="noopener">Steadfast (SDF AU)</a> if it is included in the ASX100.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 100, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.The review period for the rebalance ends on 20 August, so there are only 3 days to go in the review period with 124 days completed.For the ASX100, we see Boral Ltd (BLD AU) as a potential deletion following the reduction in its free float following Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s tender offer. This is the possibility of another change with Steadfast (SDF AU) replacing Beach Energy (BPT AU) in the index.For the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), we see Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU), Sealink Travel (SLK AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU) as potential inclusions, while Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU), G8 Education (GEM AU) and Westgold Resources (WGX AU) are potential deletions.For the ASX300, potential inclusions are Paladin Energy (PDN AU), Imugene Ltd (IMU AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), BetMakers Technology Group (BET AU), Novonix Ltd (NVX AU), Dubber Corp Ltd (DUB AU), Johns Lyng (JLG AU) and Strike Energy (STX AU), while potential deletions are Bubs Australia (BUB AU), Synlait Milk (SML NZ), Integrated Research (IRI AU), Maca Ltd (MLD AU) and Medical Developments International (MVP AU).The impact is quite large on the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) expected changes while there could be a large impact on Steadfast (SDF AU) if it is included in the ASX100.

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact & Large Shorts

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p></div><div>
<p>The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.</p>
<p>Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.</p>
<p>Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</p>
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

Australia

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Limited provides investment management services. The Company offers operational support, insurance, business management, compliance, financial reporting, and accounting services. Pinnacle Investment Management Group conducts its business in Australia.

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Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI AU)

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

While possible, the probability of Regal/BPEA EQT derailing the deal continues to decline. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact & Large Shorts

There are a lot of changes expected across the ASX100, 200 & 300 indices at the September rebalance. A lot of those stocks will have a large impact...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

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