Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There are up to two intra-review changes possible between now and the June 2024 review which could triggered by the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake (SLR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral (BLD AU)</a> deals.</li>
<li>Separately, I see one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes for the regular rebalance in June 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
There are up to two intra-review changes possible between now and the June 2024 review which could triggered by the Silver Lake (SLR AU) and Boral (BLD AU) deals.
Separately, I see one ASX 20 change and two ASX 100 changes for the regular rebalance in June 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)</a>'s holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a> continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/red-5-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1" rel="noopener">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a> merger could lead to an index change early June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a>'s acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.</li>
</ul>



Seven Group Holdings (SVW AU)'s holding in Boral Ltd (BLD AU) continues to increase and that could lead to an index change at the June rebalance, if not earlier.
The Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)/ Red 5 Ltd (RED AU) merger could lead to an index change early June.

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)'s acquisition of CSR Ltd (CSR AU) could lead to another index change just ahead of the regular June rebalance.


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.</li>
<li>We see one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200 but the final result could depend on relative share price movements for the next two months.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently do not see any index changes for ASX 20 and ASX 100.
We see one change for ASX 100 and two changes for ASX 200 but the final result could depend on relative share price movements for the next two months.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Three Changes Possible; New Long-Short Ideas

<ul>
<li>Following its acquisition by Nationwide, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-money-uk-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22918:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU)</a> is scheduled to stop trading on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> after market close on 25 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-money-uk-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22918:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and there will be adhoc inclusions at the close on 25 September.</li>
<li>There are a couple of stocks vying for inclusion in each index and the next couple of days will determine which ones make it.</li>
</ul>


Following its acquisition by Nationwide, Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU) is scheduled to stop trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) after market close on 25 September.

Virgin Money UK Plc (VUK AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and there will be adhoc inclusions at the close on 25 September.
There are a couple of stocks vying for inclusion in each index and the next couple of days will determine which ones make it.


ASX100/ASX200 Index: Replacement Candidates for Virgin Money (VUK AU)

<ul>
<li>There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The two big surprises are the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yancoal-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4145:1" rel="noopener">Yancoal Australia (YAL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index, 3 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and 16 adds/ 8 deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The two big surprises are the inclusion of Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) and Yancoal Australia (YAL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX300 Index.
The adds to the indices have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be profit-taking in the next few days.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

Australia

Codan Limited develops rugged and electronics solutions for international government, corporate, NGO and consumer markets. The company's line of business includes provision of radio communications, metal detection and tracking solutions.

Price Gauge
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Codan (CDA AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

I would be LONG Codan (CDA AU) vs the ASX 200 index because I see that as the top potential replacement name for the next ASX 200 change.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

Upcoming M&A activity will result in ad hoc inclusions to the ASX200 prior to the June rebal. There could be 2-3 adds in the first few weeks of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Three Changes Possible; New Long-Short Ideas

There could be 5x-9x ADV to trade for the expected ADDs and DELs for ASX 200 in December 2024. We currently estimate one-way flow for the ASX 200...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX100/ASX200 Index: Replacement Candidates for Virgin Money (VUK AU)

Codan will be added to the ASX200 at the close tomorrow and the stock has continued to move higher. Light & Wonder (LNW) is down 15% today after...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun 24: A Couple of Intra-Review Changes Likely

I would be LONG Codan (CDA AU) vs the ASX 200 index because I see that as the top potential replacement name for the next ASX 200 change.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

Upcoming M&A activity will result in ad hoc inclusions to the ASX200 prior to the June rebal. There could be 2-3 adds in the first few weeks of...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 24: Three Changes Possible; New Long-Short Ideas

There could be 5x-9x ADV to trade for the expected ADDs and DELs for ASX 200 in December 2024. We currently estimate one-way flow for the ASX 200...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX100/ASX200 Index: Replacement Candidates for Virgin Money (VUK AU)

Codan will be added to the ASX200 at the close tomorrow and the stock has continued to move higher. Light & Wonder (LNW) is down 15% today after...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed

The index rebalances at the close today. Stocks have moved a lot over the last couple of weeks since announcements and some positioning will be...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Sep 2024): Two Big Surprises; Positioning Is Mixed