Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)</a>) are both at all-time highs. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH)) are both at all-time highs. 
Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Wilmar's All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently launched a public consultation regarding a Code of Conduct for ESG ratings providers and ESG data product providers in Singapore.</li>
<li>It is the right approach for Singapore – a voluntary best-practices framework furthering one of the world's most credible "green" economies, not a regulatory force-fix of something broken.</li>
<li>No surprise ratings methodology changes. No en masse upgrades/downgrades. No acute shocks to the system. Just slow and steady progress for ESG investing and finance in Singapore.</li>
</ul>


The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) recently launched a public consultation regarding a Code of Conduct for ESG ratings providers and ESG data product providers in Singapore.
It is the right approach for Singapore – a voluntary best-practices framework furthering one of the world's most credible "green" economies, not a regulatory force-fix of something broken.
No surprise ratings methodology changes. No en masse upgrades/downgrades. No acute shocks to the system. Just slow and steady progress for ESG investing and finance in Singapore.


Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam Group (OLG SP)</a> has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.</li>
<li>The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. </li>
<li>The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.</li>
</ul>



Olam Group (OLG SP) has despatched the EGM circular to get shareholder approval for the next step in the restructuring exercise to unlock value - Olam Agri IPO.
The Olam Agri IPO through a dual primary listing (SGX ST and Saudi Arabia) involves a primary (IPO shares are 20% of enlarged shares) and secondary (25% vendor sale) offering. 
The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.


Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/olam-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765:1" rel="noopener">Olam International (OLAM SP)</a> has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/233/967/original/image_58873528221633585900666.png?1633585903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="233967"></figure>Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam International (OLAM SP) has been a poor stock price performer on the SGX ever since it was attacked by short-seller Muddy Waters in 2012. Olam was essentially rescued by Temasek while peer Noble went bust. The 10-year stock chart says it all. Olam recently closed at 1.76 SGD, far below its peak of 2.64 SGD last reached in February 2012!Fast forward almost ten years and Olam is set to go into a period of heightened corporate activity to get Temasek (53% shareholder) its required exit. As well-telegraphed OFI (Olam Food Ingredients) will list on the LSE in 1H22. The OGA (Olam Global Agri) business could get a listing in the US by late 2022 or early 2023.Both listings could unlock significant value for Temasek and Olam minorities. We expect full-on press coverage, analyst, and corporate banking awareness of the OFI deal come 1H22. Olam is a small company in a global context but at 6.7 billion SGD (18 billion SGD Enterprise Value) it is a big deal for the SGX.Back-of-the-envelope calculations and comments to Reuters and The Times make us conclude that Olam could be worth well over 3 SGD/share depending on the eventual OFI valuation and debt assigned to the unit. In a blue-sky scenario, we even get a valuation as high as 4 SGD. That is 70% to 124% upside from Olam's last traded price on SGX. In this scenario, we assign 0 value to OGA which is unrealistic. Major wild card: what % of Olam's 15 billion SGD debt gets assigned to OFI.Given Temasek's ($400 billion AUM and Singapore's key SWF) importance to global investment banks, we are betting that the players involved will pull out all stops to make OFI's listing a success. Minority investors looking to ride the coattails of "the great Temasek unlock" would be wise to position themselves in Olam stock during 4Q21. The downside is protected by a 4% dividend yield which should be safe in case capital markets make an IPO impossible in 1H22.

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wilmar-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:172:1" rel="noopener">Wilmar International (WIL SP)</a>'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)</a>) are both at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Reportedly, the mother and two sisters of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> Chairman Jay Y. Lee plan to sell shares in a block deal worth ~₩2.8tn ($2.1bn billion.</li>
</ul>



Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024. 

Wilmar International (WIL SP)'s current implied stub and simple ratio (Wilmar/ Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (300999 CH)) are both at all-time highs.
Reportedly, the mother and two sisters of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Chairman Jay Y. Lee plan to sell shares in a block deal worth ~₩2.8tn ($2.1bn billion.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Furuya Metal, Visional, Wilmar, Samsung Electronics, ViinFast/Vingroup

Singapore

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel.  The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Established in 1992 and listed on the Singapore Exchange since 2007, First Resources is one of the leading palm oil producers in the region, managing over 200,000 hectares of oil palm plantations across the Riau, East Kalimantan and West Kalimantan provinces of Indonesia.

Our core business activities include cultivating oil palms, harvesting the fresh fruit bunches (FFB) and milling them into crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK). In addition to plantations and palm oil mills, the Group through its refinery, fractionation, biodiesel and kernel crushing plants, processes its CPO and PK production into higher value palm-based products such as biodiesel, refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) olein and RBD stearin, palm kernel oil and palm kernel expeller. This enables the Group to extract maximum value out of our upstream plantation assets. Our products are sold to both local and international markets.

First Resources is committed to the production of sustainable palm oil. Our sustainability strategy is centred upon maximising output while minimising the adverse environmental and social impact from our operations. We will constantly strengthen our sustainability framework through regular benchmarking against industry standards and best practices.

Del Monte Pacific Limited produces and markets packaged vegetable and fruit, beverage and culinary products. The Group has the exclusive right to use the Del Monte brand for packaged products in the USA, South America, Philippines, the Indian subcontinent and Myanmar, and the S&W brand for both packaged and fresh products globally except Australia and New Zealand.

Bumitama Agri is a leading producer of crude palm oil and palm kernel in Indonesia. The Group is principally engaged in the cultivation of oil palm trees, as well as the harvesting and processing of fresh palm fruit bunches into CPO and PK. It was founded in 1996 and listed on the Singapore Exchange in 2012. 

Past extensification efforts, combined with continuous improvement in production processes, have bolstered Bumitama’s FFB (internally sourced) and CPO production volumes to climb significantly over the last ten years, with a CAGR of 11.8%. The Group has consistently stayed on the path towards achieving higher yields and extraction rates by investing in research and development, technology, and best practices in cultivation of oil palm. These efforts have made the Group one of the most efficient producers in the industry today, boasting a CPO yield of 4.2 tonnes per ha in 2021.

In recognition of its operations’ superiority, the Group has received numerous accolades which include having listed as Forbes Asia’s 200 Best Under a Billion 2013, earned Frost & Sullivan Indonesia’s Excellence Award in 2014, and obtained the Best Managed Small Cap Company in 2016 and the Most Outstanding Company in Singapore for the Decade (2010-2019) in 2019 from Asiamoney.

Food Empire Holdings Limited manufactures and markets instant beverage products, frozen convenience food, confectionery and snack food. The Company exports its products to markets such as Russia, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and Indochina.

Japfa Ltd. operates in the agricultural industry. The Company breeds and processes chicken, pork and beef. Japfa also operates dairy farms.

Petra Foods Limited manufactures and distributes branded consumer products, primarily chocolate confectionery, across Southeast Asia.

Indofood Agri Resources Limited is an integrated agribusiness company. The Company and its subsidiaries are involved in research and development, oil palm seed breeding, oil palm cultivation and milling. Indofood Agri Resources also refines, brands and markets cooking oil, margarine, shortening and other palm oil products.

Mewah International, Inc. produces vegetable oils.  The Company produces palm, lauric, coconut, soybean, canola, sunflower, and corn oil.  Mewah markets its oils to refiners, processors, wholesalers and retailers; and packs and sells edible oils and fats and specialized bakery and confectionery oils and fats to consumers.

QAF Limited manufactures and distributes bread, bakery, and confectionery products.  The Company also operates supermarkets and cold storage warehousing. QAF trades and distributes food, beverages, food related ingredients and commodities.  QAF produces, processes, and markets pork and feed mill production.

Tata Consumer Products Limited produces food and beverage products. The Company manufactures, sells, and exports tea, coffee, salt, oil, pulses, spices, and food products. Tata Consumer Products serves customers worldwide.

Campbell Soup Company, with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets branded convenience food products.  The Company's core divisions include soups and sauces, biscuits and confectionery, and foodservice.  Campbell's distributes its products worldwide.

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation produces prepared and fresh chicken products in the United States and Mexico.  Through vertical integration, the Company controls the breeding, hatching, and growing of chickens and the processing, preparation, and packaging of its product lines.  Pilgrim's Pride exports its products to Canada, Eastern Europe, the Far East, and other world markets.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

The JM Smucker Company manufactures and markets food products on a worldwide basis. The Company's principal products include peanut butter, shortening and oils, fruit spreads, canned milk, baking mixes and ready-to-spread frostings, flour and baking ingredients, juices and beverages, frozen sandwiches, dessert toppings, syrups, pickles and condiments, and potato side dishes.

KIKKOMAN CORPORATION produces and markets soy sauce, alcoholic beverages, and other food products.  The Company has marketing rights for Del Monte brand products outside of the United States.  Kikkoman also operates restaurants in Japan and other countries.

Bunge Limited is a global agribusiness and food company. The Company buys, sells, stores, transports and processes oilseeds and grains to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers. Bunge also produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane, mills wheat and corn, and sells fertilizer.

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

Tongwei Co., Ltd. produces and markets aquatic and animal feeds. The Company also sells animal medicines.

Guangdong Haid Group Company Ltd. manufactures and markets animal feeds.  The Company imports distiller's dried grains with solubles for ingredient in fish and animal feeds.

Wilmar International Ltd. is an agribusiness company. The Company is involved in oil palm cultivation, edible oils refining, oilseeds crushing, consumer pack edible oils processing and merchandising, specialty fats, oleochemicals and biodiesel manufacturing, and grains processing and merchandising. Wilmar also manufactures and distributes fertilizers and owns a fleet of vessels.

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Wilmar International (WIL SP)

StubWorld: Wilmar's All-Time High Implied Stub As Yihai Kerry Touches New Lows

I'd be reluctant to short Wilmar, long YKA here. I might look to short Wilmar against a basket of larger peers (ADM, Bunge etc). I would not be...

David Blennerhassett

Singapore Code of Conduct for ESG Ratings Is Less Risk and More Reward

Singapore's Code of Conduct for ESG ratings is more light-handed than other regulation-based approaches, but therein lies the "less risk and more...

Kyle Rudden

Olam Group (OLG SP): EGM on 29 March Another Step to Realize Value

The EGM marks a key step in the strategy to unlock value. Our SoTP valuation is S$2.13 per share, which is a 28% upside to the last close price.

Arun George

Olam: Lots of Corporate Activity in '22/'23 to Unlock Significant Value for Temasek and Minorities

Olam is set to see a significant increase in corporate activity in 1H22. Investors would be wise to position in the stock before the newsflow hits...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Furuya Metal, Visional, Wilmar, Samsung Electronics, ViinFast/Vingroup

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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