Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waypoint-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22851:1" rel="noopener">Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)</a> is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.</li>
<li>We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the December rebalance ended on 29 November. There could be one deletion, plus there will be capping changes.

Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) is the lowest ranked current index constituent and is very close to the deletion threshold.
We estimate the one deletion and capping changes could result in one-way turnover of 3.6% resulting in a one-way trade of A$23m.


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/fJECF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management</a>. </li>
<li>Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?</li>
</ul>


Back in August 2021, ESR Group (1821 HK) acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management. 
Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play Cromwell Property (CMW AU). 
ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?


Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

Hotel Property Investments / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.</li>
<li>Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. </li>
<li>It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.</li>
</ul>


Declaring its Offer unconditional was always a possibility as Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) board continues to reject terms. The alternative was a likely deal fail.
Charter Halls currently has 31.37%, including 6.66% via the acceptance facility.  That facility has now closed following this unconditional statement. 
It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and recommend shareholders accept terms.


Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

<ul>
<li>Back on the 9th September, pub play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hotel-property-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9850:1" rel="noopener">Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU)</a> announced - and summarily <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240909/pdf/067ntttrhq85j9.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-retail-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11375:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Charter Hall has now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241018/pdf/0698jwgh9vfx9k.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased terms to A$3.85/share</a> (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. </li>
<li>
HPI's <a href="https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2024/10/18/charter-hall-ups-the-ante-with-final-hpi-bid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."</li>
</ul>


Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced - and summarily rejected - a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best &amp; final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 

HPI's reported response? "While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value."


<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 August. We do not see any constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-consortium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29082:1" rel="noopener">Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)</a> is just outside inclusion zone at the moment and outperformance over the rest of the week could result in inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-consortium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29082:1" rel="noopener">Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)</a>'s inclusion and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$62m. </li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance ends on 30 August. We do not see any constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes.

Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) is just outside inclusion zone at the moment and outperformance over the rest of the week could result in inclusion.

Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)'s inclusion and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 5% and in a round-trip trade of A$62m. 


MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Add & Capping Changes

Australia

Waypoint REIT Limited (previously Viva Energy REIT) operates as a real estate investment trust. The Trust owns a portfolio of service station sites located throughout Australia.  Viva Energy REIT also acquires fuel refining and retailing businesses.

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Waypoint REIT (WPR AU)

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Delete & Capping Changes

Waypoint REIT is the lowest ranked constituent and close to the deletion threshold. There will be capping changes for 5 stocks. Estimated 1-way...

Brian Freitas

Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the...

David Blennerhassett

Hotel Properties (HPI AU): Charter Hall Declares Offer Unconditional

It will be challenging for Charter Hall to clear 50% without board support. But IF they get 50%+, expect the board to change their mind and...

David Blennerhassett

Charter Hall Bumps With Final HPI Bid

I expected Charter Hall to nudge the terms higher to secure board support. But I don't believe a 5% bump will cut it. If an arbitrageur, I'd be...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance Preview: One Close Add & Capping Changes

No constituent changes expected for now. HMC is a very close add and needs to outperform over the next 3 trading days to make it into the index....

Brian Freitas

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