Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/CRvUL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?</a>,  after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR (1821 HK)</a> acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a> was a non-core holding.</li>
<li>After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. </li>
<li>Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR's remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.
</li>
</ul>


As discussed in Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?,  after ESR (1821 HK) acquired ARA Asset Management in 2021, it said Cromwell Property (CMW AU) was a non-core holding.
After ESR announced a privatisation by Warburg/Starwood on the 4th December 2024, I mused whether this would accelerate the sale as part of a wider strategic review. 
Two months ago, ESR initiated a block trade for part of its 31% stake in Cromwell. Now Brookfield is seeking ESR's remaining 19.9% stake @A$0.38/share. Subject to FIRB approval.



Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): Brookfield's Stake Foreshadows A Full Takeover

<ul>
<li>Back in August 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in <a href="https://skr.ma/fJECF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management</a>. </li>
<li>Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?</li>
</ul>


Back in August 2021, ESR Group (1821 HK) acquired unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn. This was discussed in ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management. 
Included in the transaction (completed early-2022) was ARA's ~30.7% stake in office play Cromwell Property (CMW AU). 
ESR has in the past said Cromwell was a non-core holding. With ESR now expected to be privatized by Warburg/Starwood, does this accelerate the narrative?


Cromwell Prop (CMW AU): ESR Exit Post-Privatization?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

<ul>
<li>I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. Although I'm expecting an Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cromwell-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2780:1" rel="noopener">Cromwell Property (CMW AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9712:1" rel="noopener">New World Resources (NWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 38 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week - Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)'s Tender Offer. Although I'm expecting an Offer for Cromwell Property (CMW AU).
Key updates/news took place on Insignia Financial (IFL AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), New World Resources (NWC AU), Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Pacific Ind., Insignia Fin., PointsBet, New World Res., Frasers Hospitality

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Cromwell Property Group is a property and funds manager. The Company, through its subsidiary, provides funds management, property transactions, property and facilities management, finance, compliance, debenture issues, and debt management.

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Cromwell Property (CMW AU)

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