Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s election setback hit bonds, peso, and equities, reviving “Kicillof risk” and raising concerns over reform momentum, legislative gridlock, and elevated political risk premia.</li>
<li>Suzano priced $1bn 2036s inside guidance, highlighting strong demand and proactive liability management, while Pemex’s $9.9bn buyback and Moody’s B1 upgrade underscored sovereign support.</li>
<li>Markets diverged: LatAm credit widened on Argentine risk, EM and U.S. indices tightened, Argentina’s equities plunged, Brazil and Mexico rallied, oil softened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined.</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s election setback hit bonds, peso, and equities, reviving “Kicillof risk” and raising concerns over reform momentum, legislative gridlock, and elevated political risk premia.
Suzano priced $1bn 2036s inside guidance, highlighting strong demand and proactive liability management, while Pemex’s $9.9bn buyback and Moody’s B1 upgrade underscored sovereign support.
Markets diverged: LatAm credit widened on Argentine risk, EM and U.S. indices tightened, Argentina’s equities plunged, Brazil and Mexico rallied, oil softened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined.


<ul>
<li>LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.</li>
<li>In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.</li>
</ul>


LatAm credit markets ended the week mixed as the LatAm Aggregate Index widened to 280 bps while EM spreads and U.S. yields remained stable.
In 2Q25 earnings, Vista, Minerva, and YPF delivered strong results supporting Overweight views, while Suzano, Cemex, and Telecom face spread constraints amid operational pressures.
MercadoLibre’s growth remains solid but limited spread compression, and Pemex benefits from government support.


Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

<ul>
<li>U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals</li>
<li>Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case</li>
</ul>


U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage / MercadoLibre Achieves Full Investment Grade Status with S&amp;P Upgrade / Pemex Eyes US$8bn from Mixed Contracts
Initiating Coverage on Gerdau: IG Credit with US Exposure, Limited Spread Upside / Fitch Affirms Gerdau at BBB with Stable Outlook on Strong Fundamentals
Vista 2Q25: Results Reinforce Overweight, But Cash Burn and Liquidity Weaken Buffer / US Reinforces Argentina’s Appeal in YPF Expropriation Case


<ul>
<li>Suzano to Acquire 51% of Kimberly-Clark’s International Tissue Business for $1.73bn </li>
<li>Vista Priced US$500mn 2033 Unsecured Notes at Par to Yield 8.5% (IPT: mid-8%) / Cemex Launches US$1bn Perpetual NC5 Notes to Yield 7.2% (IPT: 7.625%)</li>
<li>Telecom 1Q25: Margin Gains Support Credit, But Telefónica Deal Still Central / Telecom Prices US$800 Million Unsecured Bond Due 2033 at 9.5% Yield</li>
</ul>


Suzano to Acquire 51% of Kimberly-Clark’s International Tissue Business for $1.73bn 
Vista Priced US$500mn 2033 Unsecured Notes at Par to Yield 8.5% (IPT: mid-8%) / Cemex Launches US$1bn Perpetual NC5 Notes to Yield 7.2% (IPT: 7.625%)
Telecom 1Q25: Margin Gains Support Credit, But Telefónica Deal Still Central / Telecom Prices US$800 Million Unsecured Bond Due 2033 at 9.5% Yield


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Suzano acquires majority stake in Kimberly-Clark's international tissue business for $1.73bn, while Telecom sees margin gains in 1Q25 but still...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views - 2Q25 Earnings Recap

​LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Suzano acquires majority stake in Kimberly-Clark's international tissue business for $1.73bn, while Telecom sees margin gains in 1Q25 but still...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

LatAm credit markets show mixed results, with some companies delivering strong earnings while others face operational pressures.

US tariffs impact Brazilian companies, MercadoLibre achieves investment grade, Pemex eyes $8bn, Gerdau coverage initiated, Vista 2Q25 results, US...

Suzano acquires majority stake in Kimberly-Clark's international tissue business for $1.73bn, while Telecom sees margin gains in 1Q25 but still...

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...