Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>Despite a temporary increase in operating costs, Vista Energy’s solid credit metrics, expanding production, and new pipeline capacity reinforce growth potential</li>
<li>We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Vista Energy. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.</li>
<li>From a credit perspective. The results reflected a higher debt balance, primarily driven by the $600 million issuance in December.</li>
</ul>


Despite a temporary increase in operating costs, Vista Energy’s solid credit metrics, expanding production, and new pipeline capacity reinforce growth potential
We maintain our Outperform recommendation on Vista Energy. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.
From a credit perspective. The results reflected a higher debt balance, primarily driven by the $600 million issuance in December.


Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

<ul>
<li>We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.</li>
<li>P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.</li>
<li>Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. </li>
</ul>


We continue to prefer Vista for investors seeking exposure to Argentina’s energy sector. We believe stronger operational performance and a reduction in country risk could drive bond outperformance.
P1 reserves grew by 56.7 MMboe, or 17.8% YoY, to 375.2 MMboe, resulting in a reserves replacement ratio of 323% and a reserve life of 14.7 years.
Total production increased 17.1% QoQ to 85.3 kbpd in 4Q24, up from 72.8 kbpd in 3Q24. This growth was primarily driven by a 15.7% sequential increase in crude oil production. 


Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.</li>
<li>Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation.</li>
<li>Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.</li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to Argentina's energy sector.
Vista boasts a robust financial and business risk profile, supported by strong credit metrics, solid profitability, and its leadership position in Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation.
Vista is exposed to fewer sovereign and political risks than YPF, and its unique growth opportunity adds to its appeal.


<ul>
<li>The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. </li>
<li>YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March</li>
<li>Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. 
YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March
Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment


Mexico

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. operates as an oil and gas company. The Company invests in oil and gas exploration and production activities. Vista Energy serves customers in Latin America.

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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST US)

Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Vista Energy 4Q24: Solid Expectations Despite Short-Term Cost Headwinds

​Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy: Strong Reserves Growth Continues

​Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

New Issue Snapshot: Vista Energy

We are initiating coverage on Vista with an Outperform recommendation. We view Vista as an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.

Leandro Gubler

Vista Energy shows growth potential despite temporary increase in operating costs, making it an attractive option for investors seeking exposure...

Investors should consider Vista for exposure to Argentina's energy sector, with potential for bond outperformance due to operational growth and...

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

LatAm Corporate Index widens, YPF prices $1.1bn bond, PEMEX commits to settling debts, Moody's upgrades Argentine companies.