Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

Petroleos Mexicanos operates as an oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company offers pipeline carriage, petrochemical distributor and shipping centers, logistics, and fuel commercialization services. Petroleos Mexicanos serves customers in Mexico.

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

<ul>
<li>Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure</li>
<li>Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
<li>Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile</li>
</ul>


Argentina Secures US$20bn IMF Deal with Currency Controls Eased / Argentina: March CPI Surprise Adds Pressure
Initiating Coverage on Telecom Argentina: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile
Minerva Announces Capital increase Backed by Sponsors / Mercado Libre Expands Regional Footprint with $9 Billion in 2025 Investments Across Brazil, Argentina, and Chile


Telecom Argentina SA provides telecommunications services including local, long-distance and international service in Argentina.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides cellular telecommunications services and offers paging services.

<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage on Telecom with a Market Perform recommendation. We view the notes as fairly valued considering the uncertainty surrounding the potential acquisition of Telefónica.</li>
<li>Telecom maintains a strong market position, supported by its broad service scale and integrated offerings, which enhance customer retention and operational efficiency.</li>
<li>We believe Telecom is well-positioned to benefit from these trends but see a better entry point once there is greater clarity on the acquisition’s implications.</li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage on Telecom with a Market Perform recommendation. We view the notes as fairly valued considering the uncertainty surrounding the potential acquisition of Telefónica.
Telecom maintains a strong market position, supported by its broad service scale and integrated offerings, which enhance customer retention and operational efficiency.
We believe Telecom is well-positioned to benefit from these trends but see a better entry point once there is greater clarity on the acquisition’s implications.


Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


Minerva S.A. provides meat products. The Company focuses on production and sale of fresh meat and its derivatives. Minerva serves clients worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Stronger post-acquisition scale, healthy FCF outlook, and export momentum reinforce the deleveraging path and outperformance case</li>
<li>We upgrade Minerva to Outperform, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s deleveraging trajectory, supported by expected cash generation despite integration costs and higher interest expenses.</li>
<li>Minerva reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue up 26.0% QoQ and 73.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.1% QoQ and 55.8% YoY, though the margin narrowed to 8.8%</li>
</ul>


Stronger post-acquisition scale, healthy FCF outlook, and export momentum reinforce the deleveraging path and outperformance case
We upgrade Minerva to Outperform, reflecting greater confidence in the company’s deleveraging trajectory, supported by expected cash generation despite integration costs and higher interest expenses.
Minerva reported strong 4Q24 results, with revenue up 26.0% QoQ and 73.8% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA rose 16.1% QoQ and 55.8% YoY, though the margin narrowed to 8.8%


Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

EM Spreads is an independent credit research service specializing in Emerging Markets, primarily focusing on Latin American issuers.

Leandro Gubler
Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets
• EM Spreads

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

Initiating coverage on Telecom with a Market Perform rating, citing fair valuation and pending clarity on the Telefónica deal. Strong market...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

Minerva's post-acquisition scale, solid cash flow, and export strength support deleveraging and outperformance, prompting an upgrade to Outperform...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Leandro Gubler

Initiating Coverage on Telecom: Solid Market Position but Uncertain Outlook

Initiating coverage on Telecom with a Market Perform rating, citing fair valuation and pending clarity on the Telefónica deal. Strong market...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Minerva 4Q24: Acquisition Outlook and Market Tailwinds Support Credit Upgrade

Minerva's post-acquisition scale, solid cash flow, and export strength support deleveraging and outperformance, prompting an upgrade to Outperform...

Leandro Gubler

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Argentina secures IMF deal with eased currency controls, Telecom Argentina has solid market position but uncertain outlook, Mercado Libre expands...

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...