Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>’s fourth-quarter results will be out soon and we predict another disappointing quarter with mid-single-digit revenue growth.</li>
<li>The company’s FY23 revenue guidance could be significantly weaker than the current consensus estimate as rumoured layoffs and budget cuts are likely to affect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>’s growth.</li>
<li>With the share price near the upper end of the trend channel leading up to 4QFY22 earnings, we think it’s a good time to add to existing short positions.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group (9988 HK)’s fourth-quarter results will be out soon and we predict another disappointing quarter with mid-single-digit revenue growth.
The company’s FY23 revenue guidance could be significantly weaker than the current consensus estimate as rumoured layoffs and budget cuts are likely to affect Alibaba Group (BABA US)’s growth.
With the share price near the upper end of the trend channel leading up to 4QFY22 earnings, we think it’s a good time to add to existing short positions.


Alibaba: May Be a Good Time to Double Down On Shorts With 4QFY22 Set For Another Disappointment

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.</li>
<li>On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) had added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under HFCAA, which set the clock ticking for their delisting.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.</li>
</ul>


On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas regulators to China ADRs audits.
On 8th Mar 2022, Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) had added five China ADR names to its provisional list of issuers under HFCAA, which set the clock ticking for their delisting.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments and its implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>Vipshop has underperformed, on a 12-month basis, due to a slowdown in active user growth, which has spilt over into slower revenue growth and contracting earnings.</li>
<li>Material equity investments, accompanied by strategic cooperation agreements, by Tencent and JD.com in December 2017 catalysed significant user growth over the subsequent 3 years.</li>
<li>The recent de-rating once again flags Vipshop as an attractive takeover target for its current strategic shareholders and broader eCommerce rivals, including nascent disruptors and live-streaming operators.</li>
</ul>


Vipshop has underperformed, on a 12-month basis, due to a slowdown in active user growth, which has spilt over into slower revenue growth and contracting earnings.
Material equity investments, accompanied by strategic cooperation agreements, by Tencent and JD.com in December 2017 catalysed significant user growth over the subsequent 3 years.
The recent de-rating once again flags Vipshop as an attractive takeover target for its current strategic shareholders and broader eCommerce rivals, including nascent disruptors and live-streaming operators.


Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a> has been able to sustain its relative market share gains, in Chinese online retail sales, over the past two years, despite increased competitive pressure.</li>
<li>Recent weakness in its margin progression trajectory has cast doubts on its ability to realise its potential for long-term margin expansion.</li>
<li>With net cash at 31% of its market cap, relative valuation levels seem attractive.</li>
</ul>



JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) has been able to sustain its relative market share gains, in Chinese online retail sales, over the past two years, despite increased competitive pressure.
Recent weakness in its margin progression trajectory has cast doubts on its ability to realise its potential for long-term margin expansion.
With net cash at 31% of its market cap, relative valuation levels seem attractive.


JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?

<ul>
<li>The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.</li>
<li>Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.</li>
<li>Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.</li>
</ul>


The major trend, witnessed over the past two years, has been the continued loss of relative market share by Alibaba, and the continued market share gains by JD.com.
Alibaba has been able to steadily grow its active user base, on its Chinese retail platforms, by above 10%y/y since at least 2019, off an extremely high base.
Short-Term growth expectations seem relatively conservative, with limited risk for a further negative surprise.


China

Vipshop Holdings Ltd. retails branded products at discount over the Internet. The Company retails through flash sales, in which limited quantities of an item are sold at deep discount for a specified period of time.

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Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US)

Alibaba: May Be a Good Time to Double Down On Shorts With 4QFY22 Set For Another Disappointment

Alibaba shares are currently trading near the upper end of the downward trend channel and are nicely positioned to add to our existing short...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas...

Sumeet Singh

Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

In this insight, we analyse Vipshop’s user base growth, financial performance, and earnings outlook, take an updated look at current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise

In this insight, we aim to cut through the short-term “noise”, analyse the operational fundamentals for Alibaba Group, and take an updated look at...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Alibaba: May Be a Good Time to Double Down On Shorts With 4QFY22 Set For Another Disappointment

Alibaba shares are currently trading near the upper end of the downward trend channel and are nicely positioned to add to our existing short...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

China ADRs Delisting - Tide Is Turning with CSRC Showing Signs of a Compromise

On 2nd Apr 2022, CSRC put out a draft for public comments on the revision of certain provisions which would allow easier access by overseas...

Sumeet Singh

Vipshop: With Net Cash at Nearly 50% of Market Cap, Is It a Value Trap or a Takeover Target?

In this insight, we analyse Vipshop’s user base growth, financial performance, and earnings outlook, take an updated look at current valuation...

Wium Malan, CFA

JD.com: Can Sustained Market Share Gains Be Transferred into Sustained Margin Progression?

In this insight, we analyse relative market share changes, key operational drivers, longer-term margin expansion trends, and take an updated look...

Wium Malan, CFA

Alibaba Group: Looking Through the Noise

In this insight, we aim to cut through the short-term “noise”, analyse the operational fundamentals for Alibaba Group, and take an updated look at...

Wium Malan, CFA