Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.</li>
<li>US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.</li>
<li>Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.


Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.</li>
<li>We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.</li>
<li>We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.</li>
</ul>


Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.


Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

<p>Crude oil is breaking below the all important 200-day moving average and, with abysmal RS, we are forced to cut ties with the Sector; moving to underweight from market weight. Weakness can be seen across the board, from the E&amp;P companies to the service companies. Perhaps the biggest beneficiaries of declining oil prices will be the Consumer and the Emerging Markets. We would also be cautious of financials with large exposures to energy companies.</p>

Crude oil is breaking below the all important 200-day moving average and, with abysmal RS, we are forced to cut ties with the Sector; moving to underweight from market weight. Weakness can be seen across the board, from the E&amp;P companies to the service companies. Perhaps the biggest beneficiaries of declining oil prices will be the Consumer and the Emerging Markets. We would also be cautious of financials with large exposures to energy companies.

United States

VanEck Oil Services ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The Fund seeks to track the performance results of the MVIS US Listed Oil Services 25 Index. The Index is comprised of common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. companies in the oil services sector. Such companies may include small & medium-cap companies and foreign companies listed in the US.

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VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH US)

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Gold looks a bit fatigued and silver likely to play catch up. Greenback could present headwinds for equities. Japan reverses big gains in 2024.

Douglas Busch

Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord

Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel. We envisage a...

Steno Research

Energy Breaking Down - Underweight

Crude oil is breaking below the all important 200-day moving average and, with abysmal RS, we are forced to cut ties with the Sector; moving to...

Vermilion Research

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