Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index / Technical Analysis

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) remain bullish with their uptrends intact, and the MSCI Emerging Markets index continues to hold above major support at $52 on the EEM-US. Additionally, Europe’s STOXX 50 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng are on the cusp of short-term breakouts, while the major indexes in China (Shanghai Composite &amp; CSI 300) are currently breaking above short-term resistance... see chart below. Considering the absence of breakdowns and the fact that market dynamics remain largely positive, our overall constructive outlook remains appropriate.

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.

Did anyone notice the upside breakouts in both gold and gold mining stocks? In the short term, gold may have to contend with overhead resistance at the site of its 200-day moving average (dma). While we are no gold bugs, the breakout could be a technical signal of an intermediate bullish phase for precious metals.We conclude that the upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. Moreover, we have laid out a scenario offered by Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity of how gold prices could go parabolic by 2023.In addition, the price action of the precious metals has important macro implications for other asset classes. In this environment, investors should focus on stocks that can continue to grow earnings in the current environment. This means companies that can pass on their rising input costs and cyclical sectors and industries that can benefit from strong sales growth.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Gold buy call at 1,680 that formed dual lows did clear the wedge resistance at 1,780. Upside momentum has improved but is now facing resistance at 1,860/72.Touted bull flag did clear 1,780 and did adhere to the expected rally sequence. Looking forward, we see risk of a rally stall on the back of a USD low and reduced risk appetite.A short term top zone is outlined as well as pullback targets and fresh buy support that must hold backswing support to provide fuel for a stronger rise to challenge 1,950.Gold shares (GDX) also show a five wave rise due to complete ahead of a corrective pullback sequence.

Gold buy call at 1,680 that formed dual lows did clear the wedge resistance at 1,780. Upside momentum has improved but is now facing resistance at 1,860/72.Touted bull flag did clear 1,780 and did adhere to the expected rally sequence. Looking forward, we see risk of a rally stall on the back of a USD low and reduced risk appetite.A short term top zone is outlined as well as pullback targets and fresh buy support that must hold backswing support to provide fuel for a stronger rise to challenge 1,950.Gold shares (GDX) also show a five wave rise due to complete ahead of a corrective pullback sequence.

We normally only give seasonality secondary consideration in our analysis. But April is the most bullish month of the year for the S&amp;P 500 in the last 20 years and positive 80% of the time. Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the stock market should grind higher for the remainder of the month.We conclude from our analysis that the market can continue to rise in April. A healthy internal rotation has occurred that has relieved the pressure of overbought excesses. Several potential opportunities have arisen as a result of the market rotation:<ul>
<li>A opportunity to lighten up on growth stocks;</li>
<li>A opportunity to buy into value stocks;</li>
<li>A bond market rally; and</li>
<li>A possible bullish set-up for gold and gold stocks.</li>
</ul>

We normally only give seasonality secondary consideration in our analysis. But April is the most bullish month of the year for the S&amp;P 500 in the last 20 years and positive 80% of the time. Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the stock market should grind higher for the remainder of the month.We conclude from our analysis that the market can continue to rise in April. A healthy internal rotation has occurred that has relieved the pressure of overbought excesses. Several potential opportunities have arisen as a result of the market rotation:
A opportunity to lighten up on growth stocks;
A opportunity to buy into value stocks;
A bond market rally; and
A possible bullish set-up for gold and gold stocks.


Internal Rotation + Seasonality = Higher S&P 500

United States

VanEck Gold Miners ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The ETF invests in materials stocks of all cap sizes across the globe. Its largest allocation is in North American companies, principally those domiciled in Canada. The ETF weights the holdings using a market capitalization methodology.

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VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)

Chinese Indexes Headed Higher; Actionable Themes: Transportation, Materials, and Services

The evidence continues to suggest that value remains leadership and we recommend adding exposure to cyclical value on this minor pullback in the...

Vermilion Research

Interpreting the Gold Breakout

The upside breakout in gold is constructive for the precious metals complex. The price action of the precious metals has also important macro...

Cam Hui

Gold Breakout and Stall Resistance

Gold buy call at 1,680 that formed dual lows did clear the wedge resistance at 1,780. Upside momentum has improved but is now facing resistance at...

Thomas Schroeder

Internal Rotation + Seasonality = Higher S&P 500

Combined with the recent healthy internal rotation in the market, and if seasonality continues to track, the U.S. stock market should grind higher...

Cam Hui

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