Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

NASDAQ Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.</li>
<li>Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
</ul>


Following last week's pullback, a consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports.
As long as these base supports continue to hold, it tells us this is likely just a normal pullback within the overall bullish trend.
Important supports that we need to see hold in order to remain bullish include 4600 on the S&amp;P 500 and 14,400 on the Nasdaq Composite.


Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research.</li><li>What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the portfolio, trade alerts and our weekly portfolio updates, where we as always try to give you an edge and insight in what we are doing with our money.</li><li>For those of you who have been listening to our ‘Macro Sunday’ podcast, it’s no secret that our trades are “sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit”, but our equal-weighted alpha overlay portfolio has since inception in May 2023 delivered a very decent return of around 5% with very little drawdowns of at max 3-4% (compared to 8-10% for S&amp;P 500 as an example) and with a market beta of 0.15 (based on a simple linear regression).</li></ul>

Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research.What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the portfolio, trade alerts and our weekly portfolio updates, where we as always try to give you an edge and insight in what we are doing with our money.For those of you who have been listening to our ‘Macro Sunday’ podcast, it’s no secret that our trades are “sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit”, but our equal-weighted alpha overlay portfolio has since inception in May 2023 delivered a very decent return of around 5% with very little drawdowns of at max 3-4% (compared to 8-10% for S&amp;P 500 as an example) and with a market beta of 0.15 (based on a simple linear regression).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul>
<li>As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.</li>
<li>Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.</li>
<li>Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.</li>
</ul>


As we wrap up the last Central Bank week of the year, it’s safe to say that the market hasn’t provided much incentive to conclude the celebratory spirit that started in November before the New Year.
Powell’s press conference and the FOMC dot plot have continued to push interest rates lower and inject more USD liquidity into global markets.
Risk assets have enthusiastically embraced this liquidity boost, even though John Williams’s recent attempts to temper the euphoria by clarifying that the Fed is not currently discussing rate cuts.


Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

<ul><li>Welcome to our short- and sweet data nugget based on the weekly EIA numbers on the implied energy demand in the US economy.</li><li>We use the EIA data but adjust it for seasonality and data issues to give a better picture of the underlying trends in the US economy.</li><li>The demand for transportation fuel spiked again in the first week of December and there are no signs of seasonal weakness in our congestion tracker.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short- and sweet data nugget based on the weekly EIA numbers on the implied energy demand in the US economy.We use the EIA data but adjust it for seasonality and data issues to give a better picture of the underlying trends in the US economy.The demand for transportation fuel spiked again in the first week of December and there are no signs of seasonal weakness in our congestion tracker.

EIA Nugget: Another STRONG Demand Week for Energy in the US

United States

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of The Utilities Select Sector Index. The Index includes communication services, electrical power providers and natural gas distributors.

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Utilities Select Sector Spdr (XLU US)

Major Base Supports Holding; DXY Testing the 2-Month Downtrend; 4600 on SPX Remains Key Support

A consistent theme we are seeing is that many broad market indexes and Sector ETFs are holding above (and bouncing at) major base supports...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch – 2023 in hindsight

Merry Christmas and a happy new year to all of you from us here at Steno Research. What a year it has been, and we hope you have enjoyed the...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the Name of the Game

Cuts by March? We are not dismissive, but we would deem it close to fantastic if the Fed communications manage to pivot the economy without pushing...

Steno Research

EIA Nugget: Another STRONG Demand Week for Energy in the US

The demand for gasoline in barrel equivalents rose to 9.99 mn a day in week 49. This is an extremely high number from a seasonal perspective.

Steno Research

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