Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go.</li><li>The provisional result? Rally in bonds and a subsequent rally in equities.</li><li>In this week’s Portfolio Watch, we’ll have a closer look at the reasoning behind the move lower in yields and whether they are a sign of misalignment between hopes and expectations versus still lingering suboptimal fundamentals. We also try to gauge whether the recent weakness in the USD will continue, and its link to the manufacturing cycle. </li></ul>

The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go.The provisional result? Rally in bonds and a subsequent rally in equities.In this week’s Portfolio Watch, we’ll have a closer look at the reasoning behind the move lower in yields and whether they are a sign of misalignment between hopes and expectations versus still lingering suboptimal fundamentals. We also try to gauge whether the recent weakness in the USD will continue, and its link to the manufacturing cycle. 

Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.</li><li>Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.</li><li>Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD’s consolidation is extending a little further after its early week decline, leaving it mixed versus the majors.Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved relations.Stocks are somewhat softer overall, however, while bonds are firmer (with Gilts outperforming slightly). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.</li><li>While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.</li><li>Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate</li></ul>

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus can, at best, provide temporary relief to an ongoing structural issue that is not going away anytime soon.While we received some positive numbers this week, with industrial production and consumer spending exceeding expectations, the housing market figures remain dismal and are unlikely to improve unless the CCP alters its course.Apart from causing concern in the financial sector, the direct impact on the labor market is an often overlooked yet plainly evident consequence of the current crackdown on real estate

<ul><li>The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.</li><li>Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.</li><li>Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.Lower US CPI data has done a solid for EM FX while high beta FX is generally firmer on the session, reflecting a sea of green on the equity screens.Asian markets rose strongly on the added impetus of a significant liquidity add by the PBoC through its medium-term lending facility. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.</li><li>The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.</li><li>Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.</li></ul>

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.The EUR (and EUR assets) have suffered from a damned if you do, damned if you don’t a scenario in recent years as the scarcity of energy has taken center stage in the pricing of everything from the EUR, to EUR discount rates and EUR risk assets.Low volatility in energy prices allows energy-sensitive industrials to brighten up the outlook, which is initially good for the EUR, but the problem is just that there is a potential negative embedded feedback loop in that journey.

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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USD (USD CURNCY)

Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?

The Fed was ‘navigating by the stars under cloudy skies’, but now markets have implicitly been allowed a go. The provisional result? Rally in...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed, Consolidation Extends

Asian regional FX is outperforming, perhaps reflecting relief that the Biden/Xi meeting ended without any hitch and with promises of improved...

Scotiabank

EM by EM #30 Pick-up from King Carry?

After a prolonged saga of stimulus negotiations and the expenditure of countless man-hours in preparation, it is evident that the Chinese stimulus...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Steadies Ahead of Retail Sales

The USD retains a soft undertone but the DXY is essentially consolidating near yesterday’s closing low for the index as investors await developments.

Scotiabank

EUR Watch: Damned if You Do Until You Are Damned if You Don’t

EUR assets will suffer if the activity levels rebound too quickly due to a lack of elasticity in the commodity/energy supply in Europe.

Steno Research

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