Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight?</li><li>As presented last week, the US is looking at a complex ‘decision matrix’ in the Red Sea Crisis.</li><li>The State Department have been working tirelessly with Arab partners such as Qatar and Egypt to broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, but Israel have ultimately rejected it.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight?As presented last week, the US is looking at a complex ‘decision matrix’ in the Red Sea Crisis.The State Department have been working tirelessly with Arab partners such as Qatar and Egypt to broker a peace deal between Israel and Hamas, but Israel have ultimately rejected it.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.</li><li>The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).</li><li>The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.</li></ul>

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic risk aversion dynamics seem to be back as inflation expectations have been on the rise yet again since December.The Fed now find themselves at an interesting crossroads as the inflation battle may turn out more difficult than anticipated, but the gifts have already been handed out, and markets are again pricing the Fed to be the most dovish central bank in 2024 (mispricing of central banks are apparently a market speciality).The chart below is also a clear proof of the market’s inability to be forward-looking.

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.</li><li>Good news for gas markets in Europe.</li><li>We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.Good news for gas markets in Europe.We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.

Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.</li><li>The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.</li><li>The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

USD (USD CURNCY)

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

Great Game: No Red Sea Solution in Sight

Welcome to this week’s Great Game! There’s a whole lot to cover in geopolitics currently, so let’s get straight to it:Peace in sight? As presented...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?

Like we mentioned in the first positioning watch of the year, holders of risk-assets have entered a slightly more cautious stance, and the classic...

Steno Research

Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more...

Steno Research

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)