External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.</li><li>We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.</li><li>More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Easing US inflation since early summer has paved the way for US rate cuts starting in September.We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter, waiting until December for their second move.More sticky Eurozone inflation means the ECB will also move at the same quaterly pace.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major forecasts: Inflation low enough for the Fed

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the upcoming week.</li>
<li>We remain almost exclusively long on USD fixed income, and therefore, our attention is particularly focused on two key developments this week:</li>
<li>The Jackson Hole Conference and Ueda’s Appearance in the Japanese Parliament. Revisions to U.S. Employment Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release first-quarter 2024 data from the QCEW on August 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the upcoming week.
We remain almost exclusively long on USD fixed income, and therefore, our attention is particularly focused on two key developments this week:
The Jackson Hole Conference and Ueda’s Appearance in the Japanese Parliament. Revisions to U.S. Employment Data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release first-quarter 2024 data from the QCEW on August 21, 2024, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).


The Week at a Glance: The USD in the (Jackson) Hole amidst Over 1 Million Jobs Disappearing?

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.</li>
<li>Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.</li>
<li>Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.</li>
</ul>


CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.


Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

<ul><li>Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.</li><li>Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.</li><li>It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.</li></ul>

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot.Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation report either.It is once again shelter and transportation that are standing in the way of a soft US CPI print.

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

<ul><li>This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple positioning gauges now signal that trades are no longer as extended as they were 2-3 weeks ago across various assets.</li><li>This shift provides an opportunity to revisit our strategies and assess where macroeconomic trends might be steering global assets next, now that the worst of speculative activity has subsided.</li><li>As we all know, the CFTC report is always a week behind in updating markets on positioning, making last Friday’s report particularly interesting.</li></ul>

This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple positioning gauges now signal that trades are no longer as extended as they were 2-3 weeks ago across various assets.This shift provides an opportunity to revisit our strategies and assess where macroeconomic trends might be steering global assets next, now that the worst of speculative activity has subsided.As we all know, the CFTC report is always a week behind in updating markets on positioning, making last Friday’s report particularly interesting.

Positioning Watch – Positioning Squaring in JPY is Complete

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Major forecasts: Inflation low enough for the Fed

We do not however share the market perception about an imminent recession and believe the Fed will not need to cut faster than 25bp/quarter,...

Nordea

The Week at a Glance: The USD in the (Jackson) Hole amidst Over 1 Million Jobs Disappearing?

Welcome to our weekly “The Week At A Glance” publication, where we explore the most important key figure releases and tradeable themes for the...

Steno Research

Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

U.S. inflation fell below 3% for the first time in over three years. Despite mixed signals from the manufacturing sector, retail sales showed...

Mint Finance

US CPI Watch: The old culprits are back, but the report is soft enough for the Fed to cut

Overall this print doesn’t change the picture a whole lot. Inflation is soft enough for the Fed to cut, but it is not a “slam dunk” disinflation...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Positioning Squaring in JPY is Complete

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. This week likely marks the end of the positioning squaring phase, as multiple...

Steno Research

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