Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.</li><li>Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.</li></ul>

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address all the new information coming out of the labor market recently, with NFP constantly being revised down, California job gains revised down massively while jobless claims look less scary.Despite parts of the labor market looking slightly weak, the signs we are getting from the real estate market is looking strong in contrast, which could make the Jackson Hole symposium a bit more interesting as Fed are starting to focus (almost) solely on their Employment / Growth mandate.

Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmly, but a little off its best levels, ahead of this morning’s data releases.</li><li>Stocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.</li><li>Bonds are little changed, however, and crude oil has drifted a bit while G-10 commodity FX is outperforming, if only very modestly, so the risk off narrative does not fully explain intraday developments on the face of it.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmly, but a little off its best levels, ahead of this morning’s data releases.Stocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.Bonds are little changed, however, and crude oil has drifted a bit while G-10 commodity FX is outperforming, if only very modestly, so the risk off narrative does not fully explain intraday developments on the face of it.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).</li><li>The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are revising our forecasts for the major currencies along with updated economic forecasts (see tables on page 3 and here for the Forecast Update).The weakness in the USD that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the USD to stay elevated.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.</li><li>Major bond markets are adding to yesterday’s gains but US Treasurys are little changed.</li><li>The USD is trading mixed versus its major currency peers but has edged off the early session low atter European FX weakened on softer data. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.Major bond markets are adding to yesterday’s gains but US Treasurys are little changed.The USD is trading mixed versus its major currency peers but has edged off the early session low atter European FX weakened on softer data. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Steadies as EUR Slips on Soft PMI Data

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD remains firm but gains versus the core majors are relatively minor, leaving the more significant USD advances on day so far concentrated against the likes of the MXN and ZAR as well as the NOK and SEK.</li><li>The GBP, CHF and JPY are all down less than 0.1% while the EUR is fractionally higher at writing. Stocks are lower in Asia and Europe while US futures are weaker.</li><li>Crude prices are slightly lower and bond market volatility remains elevated. US 10Y yields are up 9-10bps in overnight trade, reaching a little above 5%, while core European yields are up 7bps or so on the day. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD remains firm but gains versus the core majors are relatively minor, leaving the more significant USD advances on day so far concentrated against the likes of the MXN and ZAR as well as the NOK and SEK.The GBP, CHF and JPY are all down less than 0.1% while the EUR is fractionally higher at writing. Stocks are lower in Asia and Europe while US futures are weaker.Crude prices are slightly lower and bond market volatility remains elevated. US 10Y yields are up 9-10bps in overnight trade, reaching a little above 5%, while core European yields are up 7bps or so on the day. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer but Core Majors Hold Steady

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Positioning Watch – Markets are much more sceptical on the Euro zone than the US and UK

Hello and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. Markets are as tricky as always, as everyone is trying to grasp how Powell will address...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Firm Ahead of GDP Data

tocks are soft on weak earnings data while a brief incursion into Gaza by the Israeli army overnight added to market anxiety.

Scotiabank

FX Forecast Update—October 2023

Firm US economic data drove expectations that the Fed could deliver a little more tightening—and hold interest rates high for longer—allowing the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Steadies as EUR Slips on Soft PMI Data

FX Market Update—Markets are generally steadier after yesterday’s swings. Global stocks are mostly positive and US equity futures are in the green.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Firmer but Core Majors Hold Steady

The GBP, CHF and JPY are all down less than 0.1% while the EUR is fractionally higher at writing. Stocks are lower in Asia and Europe while US...

Scotiabank

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