Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing with buoyant capex and export growth leaving GDP growth, after back-to-back 3% SAAR prints, on course for a stunning 4% SAAR pace in Q4. 
On deck last night was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, which alongside the Chicago PMI, is the longest established and, hence, most important of the monthly regional surveys. These surveys are essentially 'nomadic': they…
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Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing with buoyant capex and export growth leaving GDP growth, after back-to-back 3% SAAR prints, on course for a stunning 4% SAAR pace in Q4. 
On deck last night was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, which alongside the Chicago PMI, is the longest established and, hence, most important of the monthly regional surveys. These surveys are essentially 'nomadic': they…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24169" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24169:1">Zar (USDZAR CURNCY)</a> The bullish trend started in March 2017, with a long period of indecision and range, is in progress and should be reaching 15.40/16.40 over the coming months.However, a first target and inflexion level at 14.65 has been reached, with elements of intermediate reversal (divergence on daily RSI, graphical resistance).Therefore, a pullback below 14.65 in the 13.90/13.65 area should be expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24169" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24169:1">Zar (USDZAR CURNCY)</a> over the coming 3-4 weeks before any new strong rise.This will…

Zar (USDZAR CURNCY) The bullish trend started in March 2017, with a long period of indecision and range, is in progress and should be reaching 15.40/16.40 over the coming months.However, a first target and inflexion level at 14.65 has been reached, with elements of intermediate reversal (divergence on daily RSI, graphical resistance).Therefore, a pullback below 14.65 in the 13.90/13.65 area should be expected on Zar (USDZAR CURNCY) over the coming 3-4 weeks before any new strong rise.This will…

USDZAR: 4/6% Setback Before the Resume of the Longer Term Rise

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Key to understanding the US economy's historically muted growth performance so far this decade and the extent to which monetary policy has, in turn, been unhelpfully over-burdened is a proper appreciation of the sustained headwinds to economic growth from fiscal restraint.
As highlighted in previous pieces ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-ain-t-nuthin-but-a-g-thang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11913">US: Ain’t Nuthin’ but a ‘G’ Thang</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-dammit-janet-i-love-you-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15301">Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2</a>), we would adduce three key statistics: the 5.5% of GDP tightening in the cyclically-adjusted budget…
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Key to understanding the US economy's historically muted growth performance so far this decade and the extent to which monetary policy has, in turn, been unhelpfully over-burdened is a proper appreciation of the sustained headwinds to economic growth from fiscal restraint.
As highlighted in previous pieces ( US: Ain’t Nuthin’ but a ‘G’ Thang, Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2), we would adduce three key statistics: the 5.5% of GDP tightening in the cyclically-adjusted budget…


Chart of the Day: US Bridges Are Falling Down

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As recently emphasised (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-dammit-janet-i-love-you" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:14994">Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You</a>), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the central bank with the US economy enjoying the kind of golden conjuncture that is typically seen only every 20-25 years. In fact, on the basis of the 'misery index' , the US economy has not been this cheerful for since the 1960s!
Yellen's achievement is all the more remarkable (and criticism of her all the more churlish!) when one considers how little help…
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As recently emphasised (Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the central bank with the US economy enjoying the kind of golden conjuncture that is typically seen only every 20-25 years. In fact, on the basis of the 'misery index' , the US economy has not been this cheerful for since the 1960s!
Yellen's achievement is all the more remarkable (and criticism of her all the more churlish!) when one considers how little help…


Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing...

Richard Iley

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods. These capital flows are tending to...

Greg Gibbs

USDZAR: 4/6% Setback Before the Resume of the Longer Term Rise

Zar (USDZAR CURNCY) The bullish trend started in March 2017, with a long period of indecision and range, is in progress and should be reaching...

Guillaume Coutant

Chart of the Day: US Bridges Are Falling Down

Key to understanding the US economy's historically muted growth performance so far this decade and the extent to which monetary policy has, in...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Dammit Janet! I Love You - Part 2

As recently emphasised (Chart of the Day: Dammit, Janet! I Love You), Fed Chair Yellen somewhat prematurely ends her tenure in charge of the...

Richard Iley

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